Showing posts with label Charlie Weis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Charlie Weis. Show all posts

10/17/07

FIRE THE COACH! (just sayin')

Thus far this season, Nebraska, Pitt and Notre Dame have racked up a combined 7-13 record. A .350 winning percentage after -- for two of them -- the easy part of their schedule is over.

What do these teams have in common?

Nebraska and Pitt changed coaching horses in 2004, Notre Dame in 2003, and all three thought they were bringing in the man to "take them to the next level."

Where were they at?

Nebrasaka, with Frank Solich, finished 2003 with a 10-3 record and a win over Michigan State in the Alamo Bowl. No Big 12 title, no national championship run. Sorry Frank! Forget about that 11-2 season and a Rose Bowl vs #1 Miami two years earlier. C'YA!!!!

The year after changing coaches, Nebraska had its first losing season since 1961.

Pitt had Walt Harris. 8-4 season in 2004, Big East co-champs, BCS appearance in the Fiesta Bowl. BCS? Pitt???? Not enough. C'YA, Walt!

Notre Dame with Tyrone Willingham. 6-6 record, and a loss to Oregon State in the Insight Bowl. Notre Dame lose a bowl game? Who'd have thought it? Willingham had them 10-3 two years earlier? Not enough. BYE-YA!

Not one of those teams is playing anywhere nearly as healthy a few years later than they were doing the year they changed coaches or even two years before they changed coaches. In all cases, a glass half full (or nearly dry, in Notre Dame's situation).

All told, a lesson for those looking to ditch their coach for success not fulfilling their expectations. Experienced haters of Lloyd Carr, Kirk Ferentz and others... take note. There's a reward for sticking with a coach who has shown some knowledge of what he's doing. Ask Rutgers, Kentucky, Kansas, Penn State and others whose fan bases have rashly rioted for change over the last few years.

9/25/07

Dreaded "1AA Virus" takes toll on heavy, old...

The Smash Mouth TFH Hypothesis

EDSBS is tracking the spread of "Transitive Football Herpes," a virus that made the jump from 1AA to 1A when Appalachian State defeated Michigan, but is now leaping throughout the 1A ranks as Michigan has begun to finally work through its schedule. While the nation's flagship CFB blog has done honorable work in discovering and tracking the spread of the virus, the analysis to date may be incomplete and contain a small error. The "Smash Mouth Hypothesis" is that two elements need to be changed the TFH transmission theory:

1. Russell Crowe belongs nowhere in the flow chart. Michigan did not defeat him, nor his rugby team. So, any subsequent infectious behavior from Mr. Crowe is as logically linked to Michigan as would be subsequent behavior by Oregon (a team that famously did NOT lose to Michigan -- more on them in a moment).

This is minor but important because...

2. After examining EDSBS' compelling chart, it is our theory that TFH strikes teams with coaches who suffer from some combination of being morbidly obese (Charlie Weis) or Biblically aged (JoePa). Notice that the primary infector, Appy State, has Hal Moore, who is not exactly the shiney new toy on the coaching block. And he beat Lloyd Carr, a man whose age is quickly catching up with his longstanding "get off my damn lawn" old-guy attitude.

Further evidence comes in the form of Oregon coach Mike Bellotti, who is neither old nor heavy, and whose team will periodically return to the Big House throughout the season to score demonstration TD's against the Wolverine defense at halftime during Big Ten games.

Going Forward...

If the Smash Mouth Hypothesis is true, then a trend will start to develop. A big test this weekend will come because Michigan is cued up to play Northwestern, a team whose coach is among the youngest in 1A ball and anything but hefty. Bet your point spreads accordingly.

Following that, only the Wilfred Brimleyish Joe Tiller remains on the UofM schedule as a team whose coach carries about a reasonable amount of age/girth baggage. Lots more mystifying defeats for Maize and Blue, along with a suspicious thumping of Purdue, will be a strong indicator that the SMH might be true.

Likewise, with Penn State and ND already infected, we see certain positive things devloping already:

First, not yet old, quite fit, and maniacally intense, Mark Dantonio's Spartans were easily able to avoid infection from Notre Dame. But this week, ND has Purdue...

Second, Joe Pa won't be facing any more old/heavy vulnerables until he runs into .. ta da .. Purdue toward the end of the Big Ten slate.

Purdue, thankfully, doesn't play anyone else they can spread the virus to in the Big Ten.

So, if true, this all good news for most college football fans. If your coach is young and trim, your team is safe. And even if not, the damage will likely be contained to Purdue.

Be safe. Stay tuned.

9/22/07

Saturday observations...

31-14 Michigan State over Notre Dame.

Yes, not the brutal beat down that everybody else has put on them to date, but still a convincing win. And considering that Slappy Jabba didn't want Heisman Emu throwing the ball anymore, not bad at all. That's a good win against a Notre Dame that's playing ball control offense. They were playing not to get killed, rather than to win. I dare say that most everybody else would have beaten them this way under the same circumstances. It's just a bad Notre Dame.

And besides, they can't lose by sixty every week, can they? Ask Stephen Hawking, but there must be a law of entropy or something that mere random luck will produce a convincing Notre Dame loss rather than a just an endless series of soul-destroying Notre Dame humiliations. Somebody had to let them get to half time with hope. They were due for mere mediocrity.

My concerns are some Hoyer passes that missed open receivers. A Hoyer fumble that gave ND an easy touchdown. A Hoyer INT in the end zone that cost MSU at least a field goal, maybe a TD. Etc... Yes, he's new. He got better as the game wore on. I don't expect this to be a continuing problem. But those mistakes will likely be fatal if they happen in Madison next week. I never expected to win that game anyway, but still...

Also, anotheroffensive lineman limping off the field. That looks not pretty.

The defense? Well, nothing awful to report here. Again. This makes me so happy.

The running game in the 4th quarter was like a favorite warm blanket on a cold winter night next to a fire.

Penalties were sparse again. That's pleaseant.

We missed an easy field goal that didn't matter. Still, 2005's horrors are not easily forgotten.

As for Notre Dame, Slappy Jabba's statement earlier in the week bears repeating. Yes, the team and the coaches and the players didn't suddenly get worse. They were unimpressive all along. Check out Ty Willingham's wins in three years over teams that finished in the Top 25, and then check out Slappy's. Here's a head start: Weis' only such win is #24 Penn State last year.

Enjoy the next nine, expensive seasons, Irish. You paid for this shit.

Michigan

I'm very happy they got a big win win out of their system before they played Michigan State. Shades of our 2005 game were starting to dance in my head if they started 1-3.

And once again, Mike Hart proves why he may be the most aptly named player in college football history. Assuming the injury bug remains at bay, I see a long and storied NFL career.

The flipside is what happens to Michigan when he is gone.

At a minimum, they have a defense again.

And I wonder how many internet references we will find this week to the assumed "final season" of Lloyd Carr. My prediction for Michigan this year is 7-8 wins, one of which is Ohio State; a mid-level bowl, which they also win; and Lloyd Carr returns next season.

Nebraska v. Ball State

Speaking of rash coaching changes, it's too bad Ball State isn't on Ohio's MAC schedule this year (barring a meetup in the MAC title game). I suspect that former Nebraska coach Frank Solich would beat them by more than present Nebraska coach Bill Callahan did today (1 pt).

Note that Nebraska has yet to get back to the winning level they had under Solich.

Before firing Solich, Nebraska had the longest streak of winning seasons and bowl games in the NCAA. The very next season after they fired him, the spell was broken. The streak passed to Michigan.

By all means, Wal-Mart Wolverines, fire Lloyd! You will get what you deserve.

South Florida


A dozen years ago, this team didn't exist. Now, they are a serious BCS threat and dark horse national title team. There is a received wisdom that says Michigan State cannot get to the level of Michigan, Ohio State or (gasp!) Notre Dame, because it is surrounded by those powers in the recruiting wars. Yet South Florida, from nothing, is now on the map by keeping its hold on a good coach and fighting in the Florida recruiting wars despite Miami-FL, Florida and Florida State in the same state, and the entire brutal SEC in the region.

It can be done. We were probably on the way when we let Nick Saban get away. I'm beginning to think a second chance is on the table.

9/20/07

Gracious Hosts

For three games and counting, Notre Dame's most famous official cheerleader, the Leprechaun, still hasn't done his job and surrendered up any hints of their legendary lucky gold.

(Hint: Maybe he hid it in the end zone? You guys can find it by... oh... right... sorry. Nevermind. Maybe you should rename that library guy with something more reasonable... First Down Jesus?).

At any rate, the boys over at Blue-Grey Sky now have other angst to direct at what they amusingly call the "Office of Manufactured Cheer." Apparently the gracious hosts have decided to wave green and white towels when our Spartans pay a visit.

Really, guys, very touching and this does make us feel right at home in our favorite home away from home. But losing to us the last five times we've been down there to visit is hospitality enough. Turning your home crowd over to us this time is very appreciated (and understanable -- given the way Slappy Jabba has been treating you), but we really shouldn't accept.

But if you really want to make us feel at home, you could plant some of our flags after the game. When our buff mascot in the skirt and battle helmet gets done stomping on your little green man, he'll be happy to show you how to properly display them.

9/17/07

Smartest QB in America?

Item: Notre Dame allows nation-leading 23 sacks through just three games.

Item: Backup ND QB Demetrius Jones transfers to Northern Illinois.

This could be the first instance of a QB leaving a school because he didn't want the "opportunity" to start.

Side note: Michigan State is tied with Penn State for most sacks inflicted through three games (17). RUNNNN JIMMMY!!!!

9/11/07

Cheatin' Leprechauns

Hmmm... This item at College Football News reminds me of "Slappy" Charlie Weis and his baseless claims to the refs about Matt Trannon in Spartan Stadium last year. It seems that whimpering about fake violence is part of Summer Camp in South Bend.

I bet Slappy was that kid in school that everybody hated because he cried for attention over the slightest provocation during rough play at recess. Y'know, the kid that made the teachers tell you to stop sledding down the hill made of ice and start making snow angels instead?

Something Wolverines and Spartans should keep an eye on in coming weeks....

A Bigger Flop Than Evan Almighty
By
Matthew Zemek

When certain evils persist in the world, one has to continue to bang the drum until important people take notice.

With that said, then, let's say a little more about Hollywood punters seducing referees and conning the zebras... not just into throwing flags, but into making roughing the kicker interpretations instead of the more benign running-into-the kicker rulings.

In the South Carolina-Georgia and Notre Dame-Penn State games, Georgia's and Notre Dame's punters engaged in shameful embellishment of non-hits that were supposedly delivered by punt rushers. Both punters kept their kicking legs extended well after booting the ball, and when the opposing players barely touched them, they abruptly "fell" to the ground.

A roughing penalty should be obvious enough that you don't have to wonder about the punter's acting skills. Punters are vulnerable athletes, but it only makes it that much more outrageous when a punter takes advantage of his physical frailty to trick a referee into throwing a 15-yard flag. If referees wanted to get serious on this issue, they would not only refrain from throwing these flags against punt rushers, but they would throw 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct flags against punters who take dives and embellish minimal to nonexistent contact. It's long past time to crack down on this issue. Thankfully, Georgia and Notre Dame lost in spite of the trickery that was
(shamefully and successfully) displayed by their respective punters.

Cosmic justice, once in a while, actually does prevail.

9/5/07

Picks -- Week 2

Looks like I'm gonna have to make up the bulk of the posts while Masked Avenger tries to get the lyrics of Appalachian State's promo video out of his head.

The spreads are ESPN, as reported at 7pm this evening (Wednesday, Sept. 5).

Last week a mediocre 1-1. Charlie's Irish Angels didn't fail to fail. But in the theme of betting against over-rated coaching, I may have been early to the bar on Nebraska. As seen below, I've decided to stay for another drink...

Season score: 1-1

This week...

Nebraska @ Wake Forest +8.5
There are punishments for firing coaches at legendary programs who win 9-10 games every year. The Huskers will suffer in mediocrity until they turn on the interloper. I take Wake Forest and the points against Callahan's Crew, which is on it's way to an Alamo Bowl rematch against Michigan. This time, it's Lloyd Carr who saves HIS job with a win.

Navy @ Rutgers -16.5
No disrespect to Rutgers, but Navy is probably better than the 16.5 points and can keep it close. Like Rutgers, they have one of America's best coaches (also a former 1-AA national champ, IIRC). Watch out Irish....

Alabama @ Vanderbilt +3.5
Again, coaching... Nick Satan is special. Certain college fan bases just know this (Spartans, LSU, Toledo...). Not a ding on Vandy, but 'Bama will win this one by more than 3.5 points.

Oregon @ Michigan -8
This line actually moved UP from -6.5 as the week went along. Normally in this situation, I blame Michigan fans for stupidly betting their team above its potential. But it defies reason that they would be so inclined this week. Michigan will be very happy to win this narrowly, if at all, and I am far from convinced that they can. Oregon, getting the points, is a steal. They are a good team and would have looked like a good challenge for Michigan if Appalachian State had gone home on the other side of a 30pt beat-down.

Charlie's Angels vs Penn State
This line is off the charts... Something like 17 pts favoring Penn State. Not biting. But if anybody is taking action on when the 'Domers officially start turning on Charlie, then I'm willing to take after/if Tyrone Willingham upsets Boise State.

9/3/07

Unique Thoughts -- Wk 1

Unique thoughts = tryin' to say what hasn't been said already...

  • Any Given Saturday
What do you have if Michigan makes either of two botched field goals, or converts the first 2pt conversion, or any one of several bounces go the other way?

How about San Diego State in 2004, destined for a disappointing 4-7 season, coming into Michigan Stadium and narrowly losing 24-21? Michigan finished that season 9-3, barely lost to Vince Young's Texas in the Rose Bowl, and wound up ranked #14.

In other words, look to the big picture. In the last three weekends of college football, going back to last season, we have seen the supposed underdog Boise State shock Oklahoma, Florida defying the odds and blowing out Ohio State, and now the Appalachian State surprise. It seems that odds and rankings and especially computer rankings don't mean a whole lot when you actually put the teams on the field.

Giving a team a chance to win a game on the field doesn't always produce the expected results. While the Appalachian State game surely says something about this year's Michigan team as we begin the season, I'm more interested in what it says about the BCS system at the end of the year.

  • The Jobs Bowl
So... worst opening game home loss ever?

One win in two years vs. teams finishing in the Top 25 (Penn State, #24 last year)?

Two roastings in bowl games?

As the Tyrone Willingham recruits cycle out at Notre Dame, and the Charlie Weis guys come in, the results are pointing in an eerily familiar direction. I have to think that the Appalachian State story is the best thing that could have happened to Charlie Weis. The media can only ruminate on firing one coach at a time, and didn't have time to dwell too much on the offensive genius that wasn't Charlie Weis.

In his fourth to last game before getting fired, Tyrone Willingham beat Tennessee, a team that finished that year 10-3, finished ranked #14, and won the Cotton Bowl. There were several such wins in the years prior to that for Willingham at Notre Dame. Charlie Weis, beginning his third season, has given new birth to the trademark 30-pt Willingham defeats, but still hasn't gotten a signature win to rival that Tennessee game at the end, or the Michigan win the same year by Willingham, or several others.

Both Michigan and Notre Dame could easily get to Sept. 15 with 0-2 records. If that happens, get ready for the "Jobs Bowl" in Ann Arbor. The presidents of the respective schools might not think so, but the fans of an 0-3 football team are not likely to be silenced.