Dreaded "1AA Virus" takes toll on heavy, old...

The Smash Mouth TFH Hypothesis

EDSBS is tracking the spread of "Transitive Football Herpes," a virus that made the jump from 1AA to 1A when Appalachian State defeated Michigan, but is now leaping throughout the 1A ranks as Michigan has begun to finally work through its schedule. While the nation's flagship CFB blog has done honorable work in discovering and tracking the spread of the virus, the analysis to date may be incomplete and contain a small error. The "Smash Mouth Hypothesis" is that two elements need to be changed the TFH transmission theory:

1. Russell Crowe belongs nowhere in the flow chart. Michigan did not defeat him, nor his rugby team. So, any subsequent infectious behavior from Mr. Crowe is as logically linked to Michigan as would be subsequent behavior by Oregon (a team that famously did NOT lose to Michigan -- more on them in a moment).

This is minor but important because...

2. After examining EDSBS' compelling chart, it is our theory that TFH strikes teams with coaches who suffer from some combination of being morbidly obese (Charlie Weis) or Biblically aged (JoePa). Notice that the primary infector, Appy State, has Hal Moore, who is not exactly the shiney new toy on the coaching block. And he beat Lloyd Carr, a man whose age is quickly catching up with his longstanding "get off my damn lawn" old-guy attitude.

Further evidence comes in the form of Oregon coach Mike Bellotti, who is neither old nor heavy, and whose team will periodically return to the Big House throughout the season to score demonstration TD's against the Wolverine defense at halftime during Big Ten games.

Going Forward...

If the Smash Mouth Hypothesis is true, then a trend will start to develop. A big test this weekend will come because Michigan is cued up to play Northwestern, a team whose coach is among the youngest in 1A ball and anything but hefty. Bet your point spreads accordingly.

Following that, only the Wilfred Brimleyish Joe Tiller remains on the UofM schedule as a team whose coach carries about a reasonable amount of age/girth baggage. Lots more mystifying defeats for Maize and Blue, along with a suspicious thumping of Purdue, will be a strong indicator that the SMH might be true.

Likewise, with Penn State and ND already infected, we see certain positive things devloping already:

First, not yet old, quite fit, and maniacally intense, Mark Dantonio's Spartans were easily able to avoid infection from Notre Dame. But this week, ND has Purdue...

Second, Joe Pa won't be facing any more old/heavy vulnerables until he runs into .. ta da .. Purdue toward the end of the Big Ten slate.

Purdue, thankfully, doesn't play anyone else they can spread the virus to in the Big Ten.

So, if true, this all good news for most college football fans. If your coach is young and trim, your team is safe. And even if not, the damage will likely be contained to Purdue.

Be safe. Stay tuned.