The Smash Mouth TFH Hypothesis
EDSBS is tracking the spread of "Transitive Football Herpes," a virus that made the jump from 1AA to 1A when Appalachian State defeated Michigan, but is now leaping throughout the 1A ranks as Michigan has begun to finally work through its schedule. While the nation's flagship CFB blog has done honorable work in discovering and tracking the spread of the virus, the analysis to date may be incomplete and contain a small error. The "Smash Mouth Hypothesis" is that two elements need to be changed the TFH transmission theory:
1. Russell Crowe belongs nowhere in the flow chart. Michigan did not defeat him, nor his rugby team. So, any subsequent infectious behavior from Mr. Crowe is as logically linked to Michigan as would be subsequent behavior by Oregon (a team that famously did NOT lose to Michigan -- more on them in a moment).
This is minor but important because...
2. After examining EDSBS' compelling chart, it is our theory that TFH strikes teams with coaches who suffer from some combination of being morbidly obese (Charlie Weis) or Biblically aged (JoePa). Notice that the primary infector, Appy State, has Hal Moore, who is not exactly the shiney new toy on the coaching block. And he beat Lloyd Carr, a man whose age is quickly catching up with his longstanding "get off my damn lawn" old-guy attitude.
Further evidence comes in the form of Oregon coach Mike Bellotti, who is neither old nor heavy, and whose team will periodically return to the Big House throughout the season to score demonstration TD's against the Wolverine defense at halftime during Big Ten games.
Going Forward...
If the Smash Mouth Hypothesis is true, then a trend will start to develop. A big test this weekend will come because Michigan is cued up to play Northwestern, a team whose coach is among the youngest in 1A ball and anything but hefty. Bet your point spreads accordingly.
Following that, only the Wilfred Brimleyish Joe Tiller remains on the UofM schedule as a team whose coach carries about a reasonable amount of age/girth baggage. Lots more mystifying defeats for Maize and Blue, along with a suspicious thumping of Purdue, will be a strong indicator that the SMH might be true.
Likewise, with Penn State and ND already infected, we see certain positive things devloping already:
First, not yet old, quite fit, and maniacally intense, Mark Dantonio's Spartans were easily able to avoid infection from Notre Dame. But this week, ND has Purdue...
Second, Joe Pa won't be facing any more old/heavy vulnerables until he runs into .. ta da .. Purdue toward the end of the Big Ten slate.
Purdue, thankfully, doesn't play anyone else they can spread the virus to in the Big Ten.
So, if true, this all good news for most college football fans. If your coach is young and trim, your team is safe. And even if not, the damage will likely be contained to Purdue.
Be safe. Stay tuned.
Showing posts with label Penn State. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Penn State. Show all posts
6/5/07
Scheduling
College Football News ranked the Big Ten schedule strength back in March and put the Spartans on top:
Their reasoning on this?
So, I can go with that. Just the four non-conference games feature all four teams having been to bowl games at least as recently as MSU (2003). Two of them have been to BCS games within the last three years (ND, Pitt), and BGSU won 9 games in 2004, and 11 games in 2003 (all post Urban Meyer).
Basically, a Spartan team that hasn't had a winning season since 2003 has a lot to think about.
In fact, just accounting for the non-conference games (the stuff each team has some control over), there isn't another team that looks very close. Consider the the non-conferences opponents of the rest of the top half toughest skeds:
2. Michigan: All four non-conference games are at home. They get Notre Dame (MSU travels to South Bend) and also at home vs. Oregon. Oregon's likely (but not certainly) going to be tougher than Pitt, but then the remaining non-conferences are a lower division App. St and worst of the MAC Eastern Michigan. App. State won the 1-AA championship last year, so only a respectable edge to MSU with this one.
3. Ohio State: Once upon a time, the "at Washington" would have been a major concern. But that was a long time ago. The rest is all at home vs ROH (rest of Ohio): Youngstown St, Kent and Akron. When Akron's 7-5 winning season two years ago is the toughest 1-A team on your non-conference slate... a big dropoff from Michigan's non-conference, let alone Michigan State. In fact...
4. Purdue: Notre Dame at home. Central Michigan. At Toledo and Eastern Illinois. That's actually two decent MAC teams, though Toledo comes off an uncharacteristic down year, and Notre Dame. Unless Washington really turns it on this year, there's a damned good chance that two and maybe all three of Purdue's 1-A non-conference opponents end the year looking better than everybody on Ohio State's non-conference slate. I'd rank them just under Michigan and barely ahead of Ohio State if this were based solely on non-conference schedules. The wildcard is whether Youngstown State will be cruising for another 1-AA title game or rebuilding.
5. Illinois: Missouri, at Syracuse, Western Illinois, Ball State. Yawn.
6. Penn State: Notre Dame, Florida International, Buffalo, at Temple. While there are no 1-AA's in this bunch, everybody but Notre Dame is basically much more of a creampuff than the two teams that played for the 1-AA championship last year: App. State (which plays Michigan) and Youngstown St. (which plays Ohio State). It's quite a stunt to avoid 1-AA's, yet somehow find three 1-A's that are weaker than not just one, but TWO of the 1-AA's scheduled to play other teams in your own conference.
And, uh, that "at Temple" game. I've seen how well the three-toed sloth kitties travel when the distance is East Lansing. I'm betting that "at Temple" is basically another home game.
Toughest schedules
Based on home games as well as who the teams play and when:
1. Michigan State
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Purdue
5. Illinois
6. Penn State
7. Indiana
8. Iowa
9. Wisconsin
10. Northwestern
11. Minnesota
Their reasoning on this?
UAB, Bowling Green, Pitt, Northwestern and Indiana over the first half of the season with three road games (Ohio State, Iowa and Purdue) along with home dates with Michigan and Penn State in the final five. Going on the road to play Notre Dame and Wisconsin in back-to-back weeks in late September isn't going to make Mark Dantonio's first year any easier.
So, I can go with that. Just the four non-conference games feature all four teams having been to bowl games at least as recently as MSU (2003). Two of them have been to BCS games within the last three years (ND, Pitt), and BGSU won 9 games in 2004, and 11 games in 2003 (all post Urban Meyer).
Basically, a Spartan team that hasn't had a winning season since 2003 has a lot to think about.
In fact, just accounting for the non-conference games (the stuff each team has some control over), there isn't another team that looks very close. Consider the the non-conferences opponents of the rest of the top half toughest skeds:
2. Michigan: All four non-conference games are at home. They get Notre Dame (MSU travels to South Bend) and also at home vs. Oregon. Oregon's likely (but not certainly) going to be tougher than Pitt, but then the remaining non-conferences are a lower division App. St and worst of the MAC Eastern Michigan. App. State won the 1-AA championship last year, so only a respectable edge to MSU with this one.
3. Ohio State: Once upon a time, the "at Washington" would have been a major concern. But that was a long time ago. The rest is all at home vs ROH (rest of Ohio): Youngstown St, Kent and Akron. When Akron's 7-5 winning season two years ago is the toughest 1-A team on your non-conference slate... a big dropoff from Michigan's non-conference, let alone Michigan State. In fact...
4. Purdue: Notre Dame at home. Central Michigan. At Toledo and Eastern Illinois. That's actually two decent MAC teams, though Toledo comes off an uncharacteristic down year, and Notre Dame. Unless Washington really turns it on this year, there's a damned good chance that two and maybe all three of Purdue's 1-A non-conference opponents end the year looking better than everybody on Ohio State's non-conference slate. I'd rank them just under Michigan and barely ahead of Ohio State if this were based solely on non-conference schedules. The wildcard is whether Youngstown State will be cruising for another 1-AA title game or rebuilding.
5. Illinois: Missouri, at Syracuse, Western Illinois, Ball State. Yawn.
6. Penn State: Notre Dame, Florida International, Buffalo, at Temple. While there are no 1-AA's in this bunch, everybody but Notre Dame is basically much more of a creampuff than the two teams that played for the 1-AA championship last year: App. State (which plays Michigan) and Youngstown St. (which plays Ohio State). It's quite a stunt to avoid 1-AA's, yet somehow find three 1-A's that are weaker than not just one, but TWO of the 1-AA's scheduled to play other teams in your own conference.
And, uh, that "at Temple" game. I've seen how well the three-toed sloth kitties travel when the distance is East Lansing. I'm betting that "at Temple" is basically another home game.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)