Predictions -- Week 9

4-6 last week.

Season vs. spread 19-22 (.463)

All picks vs ESPN's Betus.com line as of tonight:

Duke @ Florida State -17.5
A shaky 4-3 Florida State has beaten precisely nobody by 17 pts or more this season. Zilch. Two of those were at home, vs UAB and NC St.
Duke, getting 17.5

Cal @ Arizona State -3
Arizona State in the national championship game. Stare cross-eyed at that and assume that they must lose at least two games before this is over. This is probably one of them.
Cal, getting 3

Ohio State @ Penn State +3.5
Masked Avenger's psychic cat says Ohio State goes down. Who am I to argue?
Penn State, getting 3.5

Kansas @ Texas A&M +3
Texas A&M is a 6-2 team, from the Big 12 South, playing at home. Nice record, Kansas. But you haven't played anybody... until now.
Texas A&M, getting 3

Iowa State @ Missouri -29
It seems hard to believe that anybody in the Big 12 Norris is reliably 29 points better than anybody else. This year, ANY 29 point advantage is fishy.
Iowa State, getting 29

West Virginia @ Rutgers +6
The 5-2 team (Rutgers) that beat the good team (South Florida) that beat West Virginia is getting six -- AT HOME -- against West Virginia? Remember when everybody thought Rutgers was good? They didn't go from good to awful. I'm not six points sure that either of these teams is a favorite.
Rutgers, getting 6

Pitt @ Louisville -10
This game should come with a viewer discretion advisory. Somebody might win this after being down by 20. Again, nobody is ten points certain...
Pitt, getting 10

Predictions -- Week 8

A 1-1 split last week with a meager two selections.

Crawling slowly back to respectability...

Season vs spread: 15-16 (.484)

Lots of interesting spreads this week. So I'm going long with ten selections -- all dogs -- and all from Betus.com posted by ESPN today:

Auburn @ LSU -10.5
Nothing in the SEC is ten points safe this year.
Auburn, getting 10.5

Michigan @ Illinois +3
Michigan on the road -- at night -- against a running QB? Seen this movie before. This thing goes to overtime.
Illinois, getting 3

Southern Cal @ Notre Dame +18.5
It goes against my DNA to take Notre Dame against any spread. But the question comes down to which team deflates expectations more? Based on previous weeks, there isn't an 18.5 pt difference in that answer. So, against my better judgment...
Notre Dame, getting 18.5

Kansas @ Colorado +4
Kansas has played nobody, Colorado has beaten a somebody. The game's at Colorado. This is the ever wild Big 12 Norris Division.
Colorado, getting 4

Michigan State @ Ohio State -17
I don't normally comment on the Spartans vs the spread, but this one is just to gaudy. It's as if Art Schliester is spending too much time on the phone to his bookie again.
Michigan State, getting 17

Florida @ Kentucky +6.5
Nobody is this safe on the road in an SEC game this season.
Kentucky, getting 6.5

Texas A&M @ Nebraska -2
Nebraska is a team in turmoil.
Texas A&M, getting 2

Stanford @ Arizona -10.5
The team that went on the road and beat Southern Cal is going to lose by 11 or more to Arizona? Riiiiggght!
Stanford, getting 10.5

Oregon @ Washington +11
Washington is going to get an upset somewhere in their brutal schedule. Here's as good a place as any.
Washington, getting 11

Mississippi State @ West Virginia -23.5
Mississippi State -- a 4-3 team -- has won at Auburn. West Virginia really hasn't beaten anyone. West Virginia's probably the better team -- probably -- but not 24 points better.
Mississippi State, getting 23.5

Predictions -- Week 7

A 2-2 split last week. Michigan and ... ahem ... Southern Cal both delightfully failed to cover their respective point spreads. South Florida and Wisconsin did not.

Season vs spread: 14-15 (.483)

I've been gone all week and am posting these right before the noon kickoffs (10:40 EST), so here goes. All against ESPN's posting of Betus.com on Saturday morning:

Purdue @ Michigan -5.5
Purdue, getting the 5.5 pts.

LSU @ Kentucky +9.5
Kentucky, getting the 9.5 pts.

Predictions -- Week 6

Finally a recovery last week. The disappointments were NC State deciding against all odds to be the first team NOT to treat Louisville's defense like a pinball machine, and also Ohio inexplicably deciding to not only not cover, but actually lose at home to Kent State. Otherwise, Washington, South Florida, North Carolina, Iowa State and Northwestern all performed happily above expectations.

This 5-2 performance gets me decidedly out of Charlie Weis territory and fighting for a bowl bid.

Season vs spread: 12-13 (.480)

This week, the lines look pretty reasonable. Kind of a reach to find some that looked out of whack. But I'll go out on a limb and try four. All against the BETUS.COM line as listed on ESPN this evening (Wednesday)...

Eastern Michigan @ Michigan -31.5
This just never gets old. Northwestern threatened to beat Michigan while giving me 17 pts last week. And now there's no Mario Manningham, and banged up Chad Henne, and.... um... there's also Appalachian State.
Eastern Michigan, getting 31.5

Wisconsin @ Illinois -2.5
Illinois is favored? Fine, they're better than last year. Yes, they beat a Penn State team that appears to have no offense. I just don't believe all of the Illinois hype yet.
Wisconsin, getting 2.5

South Florida @ Florida Atlantic +16.5
Unlike Illinois, I was ready to buy the USF hype before the season started. I've had them ranked in my top 10 for weeks, and I picked them to beat West Virginia last week. They may be the Big East champs and the best team in Florida. I suspect that the wild crowd from Tampa from the night game against West Virginia will make the trip to invade FL-Atlantic's home venue. This will basically be home game for USF and they win by at least 17.
South Florida, giving 16.5

Stanford @ Southern California -40
The USC spreads are getting sillier by the week. They may go undefeated, win the national title, and be 0-13 against the spread.
Stanford, getting 40

Predictions -- Week 5

Badness again last week with a 3-4 score, though hardly on par with the 0-5 from the previous week. Obviously my own stupidity might be at fault, but in the spirit of this season's greatest losers, I've decided it's easier to blame Tyrone Willingham.

Season vs spread: 7-11 (.389)

Smart things said last week?

UConn @ Pitt -9.5 -- WTF???? This is a toss up. Pitt is banged up all over the place. The Spartans tried to give a game to them and they wouldn't take it (for the second year in a row). Pitt might win this game, but is still way over-favored. UConn getting 9.5

UConn won by 20.

Dumb things said last week?

I don't care if it's Eastern Michigan getting only 7 points (a not-unrealistic possibility this season), always, always, always take whomever is playing against Michigan following an uplifting victory in Ann Arbor.

Eh... Success is just around the corner. All picks against Thursday night's ESPN spreads:

Southern Cal @ Washington +20.5
Washington has a brutal sked and is playing it reasonably well. This is the kind of game where USC will play just good enough to win, such as that fog battle with Oregon State a few years back. Of course, USC should win, but I could entertain arguments for an upset. So nearly 3 TD's is a bit wild of a spread. And would there be any greater amusement than a Ty Willingham team beating USC?
Washington, getting 20.5 pts

West Virginia @ South Florida +7
Maybe the biggest home game ever played by South Florida. I think they'll be more ready than a seven point dog.
South Florida, getting 7

Michigan @ Northwestern +17
Yeah, I know NW lost to Duke. But at least Duke is a 1A team. Michigan has only one win where their offense scored more than 17 pts, but that was playing against a small D3 school from Indiana. Northwestern will go down by a ton of points, and then catch up and cover in garbage time as Michigan pulls its defensive starters.
Northwestern, getting 17.

North Carolina @ Virginia Tech -18.5
A typically brutal schedule for Vermont (VT). They snuck past E. Carolina (is that even a state?), then ate dirt, 48-7, when the letters "LSU" got pasted on their foreheads. Recovery was sweet, kicking around Ohio (Hokies beat Bobcats -- coming to a HS playoff near you!). And last week, they beat the crap out of both William AND Mary, but didn't have the guts to take on Joseph as well. Got the idea? NC has Butch Davis. He's good and he's overdue for putting something together. Not calling an upset, but a close game.
North Carolina, getting 18.5

Iowa State @ Nebraska -21
Two words, Ball State, are worth more than three touchdowns.
Iowa State, getting 21

Kent State @ Ohio -3
Last year, after a slow start, Ohio roared through the MAC schedule and into the title game. They start again here with Kent.
Ohio, giving up 3 pts.

Louisville @ North Carolina State +8.5
With their defense, Louisville will need to score nine touchdowns to cover this spread. With their offense, they could. But NC State should not be this big of a dog at home.
NC State, getting 8.5

Predictions -- Week 4

Demonstrating exquisite potential for being a degenerate gambler, I turned last week's predictions into 0-5 excrement. Eerily similar to Notre Dame's home record against Michigan State over the preceding five games, this is also a positively Weisish losing streak that has busted a promising 4-2 start to the season.

Season vs spread: 4-7 (.364)

For motivation this week, I have completely fabricated a Matt Trannon slap in the face and shown my team photos of Vegas gangsters planting a Teamsters' Union Pension Fund victory flag on my lawn following last Saturday's losses.

The very ambitious recovery hopes for getting back over 50% this week are printed below. As always, against the ESPN daily lines as of tonight, Sept 20 at 12:41am.

Northwestern @ Ohio State -22.5
Probably zero hope for an upset in this one, but Ohio State has yet to stay even 20 pts in front of anyone in 1-A ball. Leaving aside the eye-opening tanking against Duke last week, NW is still a 2-1 team that beat a Nevada team that looked like a decent mid-major going into the season. That Nevada is no longer looking so promising is due in large measure to NW. Soo....
Northwestern getting 22.5 points.

South Carolina @ LSU -16.5
Steve Spurrier started this season absolutely frigging loaded with returning starters. Yes, I know LSU is fast. Blah, blah... Everybody knows how good one of these teams is. We're just now learning how good the other one is. I think the spread is too generous for a game that could be an eye opening upset.
South Carolina getting 16.5

Air Force @ BYU -11
More elaborate thoughts on what I think of Air Force right here. BYU's narrow loss to UCLA looks less impressive after Utah famously bombed UCLA this last weekend. AF's beating that same Utah team looks all the more interesting. This spread is just plain stupid. Air Force should be the favorite.
Air Force getting 11

Washington @ UCLA -7
UCLA has lots and lots of question marks right now. Washington is exceeding expectations, but not surprisingly isn't as good as Ohio State yet. These teams are even. Washington could win this game.
Washington getting 7

Wyoming @ Ohio +4
Ohio should win this game. Probably even teams and the favorite is a loooong way from home.
Ohio getting 4

UConn @ Pitt -9.5
WTF???? This is a toss up. Pitt is banged up all over the place. The Spartans tried to give a game to them and they wouldn't take it (for the second year in a row). Pitt might win this game, but is still way over-favored.
UConn getting 9.5

Penn State @ Michigan +3
I don't care if it's Eastern Michigan getting only 7 points (a not-unrealistic possibility this season), always, always, always take whomever is playing against Michigan following an uplifting victory in Ann Arbor. Every Wal Mart Wolvie on vacation at a Vegas casino thinks he's smarter than the local odds makers this week.
Penn State giving 3.

Predictions -- Week 3

Last week, a nice 3-1, having come within a whisker of 4-0 as Navy nearly stayed with 16.5 of Rutgers. Taking the 8pt dog Oregon, 8.5pt dog Wake Forest and 3.5pt favorite Alabama all covered comfortably.

Season score: 4-2

All games against today's ESPN spreads. This week...

Middle Tennessee State @ LSU -41.0
I watched a little of MTSU's Xbox performance with Louisville last week. About five minutes worth, and I think MTSU put up 21 points on the way to a combined 100 points from both sides. This happened against a Louisville team that is supposed to be one of the best in the nation. LSU will win, of course, but they'll need to score 70 to stay 41 pts ahead of the Blue Raiders.
Taking MTSU and the points.

Hawaii @ UNLV +17
Here, both teams showed trends last week that argue for this game being much closer than 17 pts. First, Hawaii has been historically putrid on the road. They demonstrated this last week in nearly losing to Lousiana Tech. And then there's UNLV, which gave Wisconsin a scare. Unless the Big Ten is really down this year, the story here is that UNLV is probably a tough team at home playing against a shaky group of road warriors. Not even sure that Hawaii gets out of Vegas with a win, let alone one that's better than 17 pts.
Taking UNLV and the points.

Florida State @ Colorado +4
The die-hard MSU Spartan in me wants to believe that FL St's near disaster against UAB last weekend says more about how good UAB is than how sketchy the 'Noles have become. I want to believe this, but I don't. Colorado, on the other hand, is playing much better than last season and I think they have a chance to win this game.
Taking Colorado and the points.

Ohio @ Virginia Tech -20.5
Frank Solich has been steadily building the Ohio team and they can surprise this year. Virginia Tech, outside of famously getting blasted by LSU, got a rather skimpy win against East Carolina.
Taking Ohio and the points.

Ball State @ Navy -7
Navy can score. I took them last week and they didn't cover. I like 'em to do it this week.
Taking Navy and giving the points.

Picks -- Week 2

Looks like I'm gonna have to make up the bulk of the posts while Masked Avenger tries to get the lyrics of Appalachian State's promo video out of his head.

The spreads are ESPN, as reported at 7pm this evening (Wednesday, Sept. 5).

Last week a mediocre 1-1. Charlie's Irish Angels didn't fail to fail. But in the theme of betting against over-rated coaching, I may have been early to the bar on Nebraska. As seen below, I've decided to stay for another drink...

Season score: 1-1

This week...

Nebraska @ Wake Forest +8.5
There are punishments for firing coaches at legendary programs who win 9-10 games every year. The Huskers will suffer in mediocrity until they turn on the interloper. I take Wake Forest and the points against Callahan's Crew, which is on it's way to an Alamo Bowl rematch against Michigan. This time, it's Lloyd Carr who saves HIS job with a win.

Navy @ Rutgers -16.5
No disrespect to Rutgers, but Navy is probably better than the 16.5 points and can keep it close. Like Rutgers, they have one of America's best coaches (also a former 1-AA national champ, IIRC). Watch out Irish....

Alabama @ Vanderbilt +3.5
Again, coaching... Nick Satan is special. Certain college fan bases just know this (Spartans, LSU, Toledo...). Not a ding on Vandy, but 'Bama will win this one by more than 3.5 points.

Oregon @ Michigan -8
This line actually moved UP from -6.5 as the week went along. Normally in this situation, I blame Michigan fans for stupidly betting their team above its potential. But it defies reason that they would be so inclined this week. Michigan will be very happy to win this narrowly, if at all, and I am far from convinced that they can. Oregon, getting the points, is a steal. They are a good team and would have looked like a good challenge for Michigan if Appalachian State had gone home on the other side of a 30pt beat-down.

Charlie's Angels vs Penn State
This line is off the charts... Something like 17 pts favoring Penn State. Not biting. But if anybody is taking action on when the 'Domers officially start turning on Charlie, then I'm willing to take after/if Tyrone Willingham upsets Boise State.

NEW SEASON PICKS

All picks against ESPN's Spread. Here's the bets I like and why:

Georgia Tech at Notre Dame -3
A 9-4 team returns 15 starters and nearly beat 10-3 Notre Dame last year. Now Notre Dame returns 9 starters and is the favorite at home. No Calvin Johnson? How about no Brady Quinn, no starting receivers... That's a lot of "no." GT covers and maybe even wins.

Nevada at Nebraska -19.5
A tale of two coaches. Nebraska fired it's coach in 2003 -- a year the team won 10 games. Three years later, they still haven't gotten back to that level. Nevada, on the other hand, has been steadily getting stronger during the same period after a coaching change. I think these teams are more even than a near-20 point spread would justify.