10/7/07

2007 Top 20 Performers v.5

Grading them by what they've done, not by what we think they can do.

Well, the Denny Green Index still holds up well in comparison to the rest of the conventional polling universe. Much of my top 5 still "were who we thought they were." I'll even claim a decent moral victory for refusing to recognize Southern Cal in the first poll. If only I'd stuck with my better judgment regarding the value of the Nebraska win...

1. LSU (last week = same)
I've had them in the BCS pole position since they smashed Va Tech in week #1.

2. Cal (lw = same)
Another one that's clung stubbornly to its spot since the first ranking. If this holds up to the BCS title game, the Denny Green Index may need a copyright...

3. South Florida (lw = #4)
Here too, a relative victory. I placed USF 5th in the very first poll and bounced them around 4th and 5th until this week. The conventional polls gave them no top-5 love until the West Virginia win.

4. Missouri (lw = #19)
In a world upside down, these guys from the Big 12 Norris Division are really standing out. Unbeaten, with wins over Nebraska (4-2) and Illinois (5-1). If this seems high, that's only because...

5. Ohio State (lw = same)
...has beaten only one substantive team: Purdue (5-1). And even here, what has Purdue done?

6. Boston College (lw = #7)
Unbeaten, with no standout victories but three decent ones: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Bowling Green.

7. South Carolina (lw = #15)
A 5-1 team that has beaten Georgia and Kentucky and only lost to LSU. Thus far, their only error is getting tough stuff out of the way early.

8. Cincinnati (lw = #20)
As this season progresses, it becomes very clear that just getting to this point unbeaten is an accomplishment regardless of who you play. Cincinnati has no door-blowing wins, but they did beat Rutgers this week. Being undefeated with at least one mediocre win is all that seperates them from...

9. Illinois (lw = NR)
5-1 Fighting Illini have now downed Wisconsin (5-1), Penn State (4-2) and Indiana (5-1). Finding another team in the country with that kind of resume is very hard. One loss to an undefeated Missouri isn't even a DQ for the national title game. Wild year...

10. Kansas (lw = NR)
Nothing eye-opening to show for themselves yet, except that they've beaten everyone they have played. There's only ten unbeaten teams left. Southern Cal lost to Stanford. Oklahoma lost to Colorado. The world is spinning backwards and one of these quiet unbeatens might run the table. It's time to put them somewhere. So...

11. Arizona State (lw = #17)
See above...

12. UConn (lw = NR)
See above...

13. Hawaii (lw = NR)
I am really looking for a solid reason to eject these frauds. May not get that chance until they play Washington with their home ref... er ... FIELD advantage making even that suspect.

14. Oklahoma (lw = #11)
Not much movement here. They were supposed to beat Texas, given what became of the Red River Retreads last weekend. One loss and another decent win notched over Miami-FL. Hard to accept this, but does the Big 12 North have chance to win the conference championship????

15. Virginia Tech (lw = NR)
Another one that can claim LSU as their only loss. And now they get to notch a decent Clemson in the "good win" part of the balance sheet.

16. West Virginia (lw = #13)
I've had these guys stuck here in the mid-teens since before they lost to South Florida. This demotion was merely to make room for the undefeateds, because being unbeaten looks ever more impressive this season, regardless of schedule. West Virginia -- aside from losing to South Florida -- hasn't beaten anyone of note.

17. Florida State (lw = NR)
Back off the shelf because they've got one acceptable loss to a decent team way back at the beginning of the year (Clemson) and have also beaten a decent team: Alabama

18. Wisconsin (lw = #6)
Like Florida State, except switch Michigan State for Alabama and Illinois for Clemson.

19. Kentucky (lw = #8)
Kentucky's early "upset" of Louisville looks like nothing of the sort anymore, thanks to Louisville's wretched defense. The win over Arkansas has also dulled over time. Losing to South Carolina, on the other hand, looks like nothing to be ashamed about.

20. Oregon (lw = #10)
Michigan and what else? No horrible defeats, either. That all makes them better than...

Notes:

1. Southern Cal (lw = #3): They just lost, at home, to the worst team in their conference. Their only win is against what is now looking to be the 4th best team in the Big 12 North (Nebraska). Forget the jerseys and look at what they have done on the field: NOT MUCH. There are at least 20 teams with better work against tougher competition. There is every reason to expect Southern Cal to lose to Oregon, Cal and maybe more. In the year of living dangerously, is there even reason for the 'Domers to dream?

2. Florida (lw = # 9): Two losses is two losses. Remember, this is based on what they have done already, not where we expect them to be. But the Tennessee win is noteworthy. They too look better than Southern Cal.

3. Texas (lw = #14): Again, two losses -- see note #2

4. Rutgers (lw = #12): Hmmmm.... maybe Schiano should have taken that Miami job?

5. Purdue (lw = #18): Have beaten nobody noteworthy yet.

6. Clemson (lw = #16): See the two losses from note#2.

7. Indiana: This blog may disappear if I am forced to continue paying attention to this team after next week.

No comments: