6/5/07

Scheduling

College Football News ranked the Big Ten schedule strength back in March and put the Spartans on top:

Toughest schedules
Based on home games as well as who the teams play and when:
1. Michigan State
2. Michigan
3. Ohio State
4. Purdue
5. Illinois
6. Penn State
7. Indiana
8. Iowa
9. Wisconsin
10. Northwestern
11. Minnesota

Their reasoning on this?


UAB, Bowling Green, Pitt, Northwestern and Indiana over the first half of the season with three road games (Ohio State, Iowa and Purdue) along with home dates with Michigan and Penn State in the final five. Going on the road to play Notre Dame and Wisconsin in back-to-back weeks in late September isn't going to make Mark Dantonio's first year any easier.

So, I can go with that. Just the four non-conference games feature all four teams having been to bowl games at least as recently as MSU (2003). Two of them have been to BCS games within the last three years (ND, Pitt), and BGSU won 9 games in 2004, and 11 games in 2003 (all post Urban Meyer).

Basically, a Spartan team that hasn't had a winning season since 2003 has a lot to think about.

In fact, just accounting for the non-conference games (the stuff each team has some control over), there isn't another team that looks very close. Consider the the non-conferences opponents of the rest of the top half toughest skeds:

2. Michigan: All four non-conference games are at home. They get Notre Dame (MSU travels to South Bend) and also at home vs. Oregon. Oregon's likely (but not certainly) going to be tougher than Pitt, but then the remaining non-conferences are a lower division App. St and worst of the MAC Eastern Michigan. App. State won the 1-AA championship last year, so only a respectable edge to MSU with this one.

3. Ohio State: Once upon a time, the "at Washington" would have been a major concern. But that was a long time ago. The rest is all at home vs ROH (rest of Ohio): Youngstown St, Kent and Akron. When Akron's 7-5 winning season two years ago is the toughest 1-A team on your non-conference slate... a big dropoff from Michigan's non-conference, let alone Michigan State. In fact...

4. Purdue: Notre Dame at home. Central Michigan. At Toledo and Eastern Illinois. That's actually two decent MAC teams, though Toledo comes off an uncharacteristic down year, and Notre Dame. Unless Washington really turns it on this year, there's a damned good chance that two and maybe all three of Purdue's 1-A non-conference opponents end the year looking better than everybody on Ohio State's non-conference slate. I'd rank them just under Michigan and barely ahead of Ohio State if this were based solely on non-conference schedules. The wildcard is whether Youngstown State will be cruising for another 1-AA title game or rebuilding.

5. Illinois: Missouri, at Syracuse, Western Illinois, Ball State. Yawn.

6. Penn State: Notre Dame, Florida International, Buffalo, at Temple. While there are no 1-AA's in this bunch, everybody but Notre Dame is basically much more of a creampuff than the two teams that played for the 1-AA championship last year: App. State (which plays Michigan) and Youngstown St. (which plays Ohio State). It's quite a stunt to avoid 1-AA's, yet somehow find three 1-A's that are weaker than not just one, but TWO of the 1-AA's scheduled to play other teams in your own conference.

And, uh, that "at Temple" game. I've seen how well the three-toed sloth kitties travel when the distance is East Lansing. I'm betting that "at Temple" is basically another home game.

1 comment:

Masked Avenger said...

More scheduling stuff, this time from Rivals:

http://collegefootball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=679785