Smash Mouth Football

Predictions -- Week 9

2007-10-26T18:18:00.000-05:00

4-6 last week.

Season vs. spread 19-22 (.463)

All picks vs ESPN's Betus.com line as of tonight:

Duke @ Florida State -17.5
A shaky 4-3 Florida State has beaten precisely nobody by 17 pts or more this season. Zilch. Two of those were at home, vs UAB and NC St.
Duke, getting 17.5

Cal @ Arizona State -3
Arizona State in the national championship game. Stare cross-eyed at that and assume that they must lose at least two games before this is over. This is probably one of them.
Cal, getting 3

Ohio State @ Penn State +3.5
Masked Avenger's psychic cat says Ohio State goes down. Who am I to argue?
Penn State, getting 3.5

Kansas @ Texas A&M +3
Texas A&M is a 6-2 team, from the Big 12 South, playing at home. Nice record, Kansas. But you haven't played anybody... until now.
Texas A&M, getting 3

Iowa State @ Missouri -29
It seems hard to believe that anybody in the Big 12 Norris is reliably 29 points better than anybody else. This year, ANY 29 point advantage is fishy.
Iowa State, getting 29

West Virginia @ Rutgers +6
The 5-2 team (Rutgers) that beat the good team (South Florida) that beat West Virginia is getting six -- AT HOME -- against West Virginia? Remember when everybody thought Rutgers was good? They didn't go from good to awful. I'm not six points sure that either of these teams is a favorite.
Rutgers, getting 6

Pitt @ Louisville -10
This game should come with a viewer discretion advisory. Somebody might win this after being down by 20. Again, nobody is ten points certain...
Pitt, getting 10

FIRE THE COACH! (just sayin')

2007-10-17T22:24:00.000-05:00

Thus far this season, Nebraska, Pitt and Notre Dame have racked up a combined 7-13 record. A .350 winning percentage after -- for two of them -- the easy part of their schedule is over.

What do these teams have in common?

Nebraska and Pitt changed coaching horses in 2004, Notre Dame in 2003, and all three thought they were bringing in the man to "take them to the next level."

Where were they at?

Nebrasaka, with Frank Solich, finished 2003 with a 10-3 record and a win over Michigan State in the Alamo Bowl. No Big 12 title, no national championship run. Sorry Frank! Forget about that 11-2 season and a Rose Bowl vs #1 Miami two years earlier. C'YA!!!!

The year after changing coaches, Nebraska had its first losing season since 1961.

Pitt had Walt Harris. 8-4 season in 2004, Big East co-champs, BCS appearance in the Fiesta Bowl. BCS? Pitt???? Not enough. C'YA, Walt!

Notre Dame with Tyrone Willingham. 6-6 record, and a loss to Oregon State in the Insight Bowl. Notre Dame lose a bowl game? Who'd have thought it? Willingham had them 10-3 two years earlier? Not enough. BYE-YA!

Not one of those teams is playing anywhere nearly as healthy a few years later than they were doing the year they changed coaches or even two years before they changed coaches. In all cases, a glass half full (or nearly dry, in Notre Dame's situation).

All told, a lesson for those looking to ditch their coach for success not fulfilling their expectations. Experienced haters of Lloyd Carr, Kirk Ferentz and others... take note. There's a reward for sticking with a coach who has shown some knowledge of what he's doing. Ask Rutgers, Kentucky, Kansas, Penn State and others whose fan bases have rashly rioted for change over the last few years.

Predictions -- Week 8

2007-10-16T09:36:00.000-05:00

A 1-1 split last week with a meager two selections.

Crawling slowly back to respectability...

Season vs spread: 15-16 (.484)

Lots of interesting spreads this week. So I'm going long with ten selections -- all dogs -- and all from Betus.com posted by ESPN today:

Auburn @ LSU -10.5
Nothing in the SEC is ten points safe this year.
Auburn, getting 10.5

Michigan @ Illinois +3
Michigan on the road -- at night -- against a running QB? Seen this movie before. This thing goes to overtime.
Illinois, getting 3

Southern Cal @ Notre Dame +18.5
It goes against my DNA to take Notre Dame against any spread. But the question comes down to which team deflates expectations more? Based on previous weeks, there isn't an 18.5 pt difference in that answer. So, against my better judgment...
Notre Dame, getting 18.5

Kansas @ Colorado +4
Kansas has played nobody, Colorado has beaten a somebody. The game's at Colorado. This is the ever wild Big 12 Norris Division.
Colorado, getting 4

Michigan State @ Ohio State -17
I don't normally comment on the Spartans vs the spread, but this one is just to gaudy. It's as if Art Schliester is spending too much time on the phone to his bookie again.
Michigan State, getting 17

Florida @ Kentucky +6.5
Nobody is this safe on the road in an SEC game this season.
Kentucky, getting 6.5

Texas A&M @ Nebraska -2
Nebraska is a team in turmoil.
Texas A&M, getting 2

Stanford @ Arizona -10.5
The team that went on the road and beat Southern Cal is going to lose by 11 or more to Arizona? Riiiiggght!
Stanford, getting 10.5

Oregon @ Washington +11
Washington is going to get an upset somewhere in their brutal schedule. Here's as good a place as any.
Washington, getting 11

Mississippi State @ West Virginia -23.5
Mississippi State -- a 4-3 team -- has won at Auburn. West Virginia really hasn't beaten anyone. West Virginia's probably the better team -- probably -- but not 24 points better.
Mississippi State, getting 23.5

2007 Top 20 Performers v.6

2007-10-14T21:02:00.000-05:00

Grading on what they've done, not who they are or what we think they can do.

No Denny Green Index, this week, as nobody knows much about who anyone is anymore.

1. South Florida (last week = #3)
Now in just about everybody's BCS driver's seat. The "biggest surprise of the season" to some, I have had them ranked in the top 5 since week #2. No losses, and wins over Auburn and West Virginia. Who can beat that?

2. Ohio State (lw = #5)
Why behind USF? Their notable wins have been against Washington and Purdue. That doesn't compare well with beating Auburn and West Virginia. There's also Ohio State's phobia over the word "Florida"

3. Boston College (lw = #6)
Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. That's really better than Ohio State's signature wins thus far. This was a close call. Ohio State's defense is making up my mind.

4. LSU (lw = #1)
Defeated Va Tech, South Carolina and Florida. Lost a tough one on the road against Kentucky. This still might be the best team in the nation.

5. South Carolina (lw = #7)
Defeated Georgia and Kentucky. Lost only to LSU. Seemingly getting better every week, this is not a happy team to see on your schedule.

6. Kentucky (lw = #19)
Beat LSU and Louisville. Lost to South Carolina. Ranked least of the LSU/SCar/KY round-robin tournament, mainly because their other win isn't as good.

7. Cal (lw = #2)
I have this feeling that they aren't going to lose again.

8. Oregon (lw = #20)
The blowout win at Michigan looking better every week. The loss at Cal is hardly a shame.

9. Arizona State (lw = #11)
Unbeaten, but no significant wins. Thus begins the parking spots for the unbeaten, untested...

10. Kansas (lw = same)
Same as above...

11. Hawaii (lw = #13)
Same as above...

12. Virginia Tech (lw = #15)
Lost to LSU. Beat Clemson. Mere social promotion at work here because of the collapse of others.

13. Cincinnati (lw = #8)
Defeating Rutgers notwithstanding, it was tempting to blow them out of the poll entirely because they couldn't tear up the Louisville defense.

14. Oklahoma (lw = same)
Defeated Miami and Texas. But lost to Colorado - it's going to take a while to forget about that.

15. Missouri (lw = #4)
The Big 12 North is starting to look like the "MAC-Plains Division" once again.

16. West Virginia (lw = same)
Lost to South Florida. Otherwise, a thus far unimpressive string of wins. Yawn.

17. Virginia (lw = NR)
Defeated Georgia Tech. Lost to Wyoming. Which team is the real Virginia? Both?

18. Texas Tech (lw = NR)
Texas A&M the only decent win. Oklahoma State a somewhat mediocre loss. Basically, we're running out of one-loss teams and TWO one- loss teams might be in the BCS title game. With Oklahoma and Texas already beatable, it's time to pay attention to these guys.

19. Southern Cal (lw = NR)
I ditched them completely after last week and their weak win over Arizona didn't give any reason to change my mind. They have beaten nobody, but they still have just one loss. So, for the moment, they belong somewhere here.

20. UConn (lw = #12)
No worthwhile wins. Only loss is to Virginia, who isn't looking too shabby.

NOTES:

1. Who's missing? Everybody with two losses or more. We're not yet 2/3 through the season, and everybody who matters has already gone through the cream-puff part of their schedule. To come out with 2 defeats already is a big strike against you and probably evidence that you are going to lose more.

2. Boise State: The only team with one loss not in my top 20. As I write this, they are tied with Nevada -- at home -- in the 4th quarter. If they win, they stay with just one loss, but have yet to beat anyone. Very much looking forward to their Nov. 23 game against Hawaii.

3. Dropped out: Illinois (lw = #9), Wisconsin (lw = #18), Florida State (lw = #17)

Predictions -- Week 7

2007-10-13T09:32:00.000-05:00

A 2-2 split last week. Michigan and ... ahem ... Southern Cal both delightfully failed to cover their respective point spreads. South Florida and Wisconsin did not.

Season vs spread: 14-15 (.483)

I've been gone all week and am posting these right before the noon kickoffs (10:40 EST), so here goes. All against ESPN's posting of Betus.com on Saturday morning:

Purdue @ Michigan -5.5
Purdue, getting the 5.5 pts.

LSU @ Kentucky +9.5
Kentucky, getting the 9.5 pts.

2007 Top 20 Performers v.5

2007-10-07T19:37:00.000-05:00

Grading them by what they've done, not by what we think they can do.

Well, the Denny Green Index still holds up well in comparison to the rest of the conventional polling universe. Much of my top 5 still "were who we thought they were." I'll even claim a decent moral victory for refusing to recognize Southern Cal in the first poll. If only I'd stuck with my better judgment regarding the value of the Nebraska win...

1. LSU (last week = same)
I've had them in the BCS pole position since they smashed Va Tech in week #1.

2. Cal (lw = same)
Another one that's clung stubbornly to its spot since the first ranking. If this holds up to the BCS title game, the Denny Green Index may need a copyright...

3. South Florida (lw = #4)
Here too, a relative victory. I placed USF 5th in the very first poll and bounced them around 4th and 5th until this week. The conventional polls gave them no top-5 love until the West Virginia win.

4. Missouri (lw = #19)
In a world upside down, these guys from the Big 12 Norris Division are really standing out. Unbeaten, with wins over Nebraska (4-2) and Illinois (5-1). If this seems high, that's only because...

5. Ohio State (lw = same)
...has beaten only one substantive team: Purdue (5-1). And even here, what has Purdue done?

6. Boston College (lw = #7)
Unbeaten, with no standout victories but three decent ones: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and Bowling Green.

7. South Carolina (lw = #15)
A 5-1 team that has beaten Georgia and Kentucky and only lost to LSU. Thus far, their only error is getting tough stuff out of the way early.

8. Cincinnati (lw = #20)
As this season progresses, it becomes very clear that just getting to this point unbeaten is an accomplishment regardless of who you play. Cincinnati has no door-blowing wins, but they did beat Rutgers this week. Being undefeated with at least one mediocre win is all that seperates them from...

9. Illinois (lw = NR)
5-1 Fighting Illini have now downed Wisconsin (5-1), Penn State (4-2) and Indiana (5-1). Finding another team in the country with that kind of resume is very hard. One loss to an undefeated Missouri isn't even a DQ for the national title game. Wild year...

10. Kansas (lw = NR)
Nothing eye-opening to show for themselves yet, except that they've beaten everyone they have played. There's only ten unbeaten teams left. Southern Cal lost to Stanford. Oklahoma lost to Colorado. The world is spinning backwards and one of these quiet unbeatens might run the table. It's time to put them somewhere. So...

11. Arizona State (lw = #17)
See above...

12. UConn (lw = NR)
See above...

13. Hawaii (lw = NR)
I am really looking for a solid reason to eject these frauds. May not get that chance until they play Washington with their home ref... er ... FIELD advantage making even that suspect.

14. Oklahoma (lw = #11)
Not much movement here. They were supposed to beat Texas, given what became of the Red River Retreads last weekend. One loss and another decent win notched over Miami-FL. Hard to accept this, but does the Big 12 North have chance to win the conference championship????

15. Virginia Tech (lw = NR)
Another one that can claim LSU as their only loss. And now they get to notch a decent Clemson in the "good win" part of the balance sheet.

16. West Virginia (lw = #13)
I've had these guys stuck here in the mid-teens since before they lost to South Florida. This demotion was merely to make room for the undefeateds, because being unbeaten looks ever more impressive this season, regardless of schedule. West Virginia -- aside from losing to South Florida -- hasn't beaten anyone of note.

17. Florida State (lw = NR)
Back off the shelf because they've got one acceptable loss to a decent team way back at the beginning of the year (Clemson) and have also beaten a decent team: Alabama

18. Wisconsin (lw = #6)
Like Florida State, except switch Michigan State for Alabama and Illinois for Clemson.

19. Kentucky (lw = #8)
Kentucky's early "upset" of Louisville looks like nothing of the sort anymore, thanks to Louisville's wretched defense. The win over Arkansas has also dulled over time. Losing to South Carolina, on the other hand, looks like nothing to be ashamed about.

20. Oregon (lw = #10)
Michigan and what else? No horrible defeats, either. That all makes them better than...

Notes:

1. Southern Cal (lw = #3): They just lost, at home, to the worst team in their conference. Their only win is against what is now looking to be the 4th best team in the Big 12 North (Nebraska). Forget the jerseys and look at what they have done on the field: NOT MUCH. There are at least 20 teams with better work against tougher competition. There is every reason to expect Southern Cal to lose to Oregon, Cal and maybe more. In the year of living dangerously, is there even reason for the 'Domers to dream?

2. Florida (lw = # 9): Two losses is two losses. Remember, this is based on what they have done already, not where we expect them to be. But the Tennessee win is noteworthy. They too look better than Southern Cal.

3. Texas (lw = #14): Again, two losses -- see note #2

4. Rutgers (lw = #12): Hmmmm.... maybe Schiano should have taken that Miami job?

5. Purdue (lw = #18): Have beaten nobody noteworthy yet.

6. Clemson (lw = #16): See the two losses from note#2.

7. Indiana: This blog may disappear if I am forced to continue paying attention to this team after next week.

And then there were ten...

2007-10-06T23:48:00.001-05:00

Think for a moment that only two BCS conference teams will remain unbeaten to the end of the season, and then look at who is left:

Boston College (ACC)
Missouri / Kansas (Big 12)
Ohio State (Big Ten)
Cincinnati / UConn / South Florida (Big East)
LSU (SEC)
Arizona State / Cal (Pac Ten)

That's it.

Sure, it's easy to figure an LSU vs Ohio State or some such. But what about...

South Florida vs. Missouri?
Boston College vs UConn?
Arizona State vs Cincinnati?

Even a minor weirdness, Cal vs South Florida, is mindblowing when you consider that just six years ago -- 2001 -- Cal was a 1-10 football team and South Florida was in its very first D-1A season.

Sit Down And SHUT UP!

2007-10-05T21:05:00.000-05:00

Steve Majors of Dexter is angry and isn't going to go to Michigan games anymore. He claims family at the U going back eight decades. To read his full list of gripes, check out his letter this week to the Ann Arbor News. What seems to be his main problem is as follows:

My second gripe is the fact that season ticket holders do not come to the games. I sit in Section 42, Row 70, and 90 percent of the fans are not the same every week. Everyone stands up for each play and I miss every good play - why? My suggestion is to shut up and sit down. If everyone would have some game day etiquette, we could all see the game. The entire student section stands the whole game - I'm glad I'm not over there.

It's good to know that the loudness is still contained in particular ghettos. Very polite, those Big House traditionalists. If you invite other teams to your place, it's just rude to talk and stuff when they are trying to run their offense.

Please reconsider, Mr. Majors. You're my kind of Michigan Man. I bet you don't even rattle your keys.

Predictions -- Week 6

2007-10-03T19:02:00.000-05:00

Finally a recovery last week. The disappointments were NC State deciding against all odds to be the first team NOT to treat Louisville's defense like a pinball machine, and also Ohio inexplicably deciding to not only not cover, but actually lose at home to Kent State. Otherwise, Washington, South Florida, North Carolina, Iowa State and Northwestern all performed happily above expectations.

This 5-2 performance gets me decidedly out of Charlie Weis territory and fighting for a bowl bid.

Season vs spread: 12-13 (.480)

This week, the lines look pretty reasonable. Kind of a reach to find some that looked out of whack. But I'll go out on a limb and try four. All against the BETUS.COM line as listed on ESPN this evening (Wednesday)...

Eastern Michigan @ Michigan -31.5
This just never gets old. Northwestern threatened to beat Michigan while giving me 17 pts last week. And now there's no Mario Manningham, and banged up Chad Henne, and.... um... there's also Appalachian State.
Eastern Michigan, getting 31.5

Wisconsin @ Illinois -2.5
Illinois is favored? Fine, they're better than last year. Yes, they beat a Penn State team that appears to have no offense. I just don't believe all of the Illinois hype yet.
Wisconsin, getting 2.5

South Florida @ Florida Atlantic +16.5
Unlike Illinois, I was ready to buy the USF hype before the season started. I've had them ranked in my top 10 for weeks, and I picked them to beat West Virginia last week. They may be the Big East champs and the best team in Florida. I suspect that the wild crowd from Tampa from the night game against West Virginia will make the trip to invade FL-Atlantic's home venue. This will basically be home game for USF and they win by at least 17.
South Florida, giving 16.5

Stanford @ Southern California -40
The USC spreads are getting sillier by the week. They may go undefeated, win the national title, and be 0-13 against the spread.
Stanford, getting 40

Carr, ranked teams, and losses

2007-10-02T23:53:00.000-05:00

Michigan's defeat of Penn State led some to defend Coach Carr on the basis of his record against Top-10 teams, while others said that those stats were cherry picked. This led me to tabulate all games that Carr has coached against teams that were either ranked at the time, ranked at the end of the year, or both. I also tabulated all losses no matter whether the opponent was or finished ranked. The results follow and then I set out some interesting bullet points.

Carr-coached UM versus ranked teams and all losses

1995

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
08-26	W 18-17	Virginia	14	17	17	16
09-02	W 38-14	@ Illinois	13	25	17	-
10-07	L 13-19	Northwestern	07	25	18	08
11-04	L 25-28	@ MSU	07	-	17	-
11-18	L 17-27	@ PSU	12	19	17	13
11-25	W 31-23	Ohio State	18	02	17	06
12-28	L 20-22	Alamo - TAM	14	19	17	15

1996

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
09-14	W 20-13	@ Colorado	11	05	20	08
10-05	L 16-17	@ Northwestern	06	22	20	15
11-09	L 03-09	@ Purdue	09	-	20	-
11-16	L 17-29	PSU	16	11	20	07
11-23	W 13-09	@ Ohio State	21	02	20	02
1-1-97	L 14-17	Outback – Bama	15	16	20	11

1997

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
09-13	W 27-03	Colorado	14	08	01	-
10-18	W 28-24	Iowa	06	15	01	-
10-25	W 23-07	@ Michigan State	05	15	01	-
11-08	W 34-08	@ Penn State	04	02	01	16
11-15	W 26-16	@ Wisconsin	01	23	01	-
11-22	W 20-14	Ohio State	01	04	01	09
1-1-98	W 21-16	Rose – Wash. State	01	08	01	09

1998

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
09-05	L 20-36	@ Notre Dame	05	22	12	22
09-12	L 28-38	Syracuse	13	17	12	25
11-07	W 27-00	Penn State	22	09	12	17
11-14	W 27-10	Wisconsin	15	08	12	06
11-21	L 16-31	@ Ohio State	11	07	12	02
1-1-99	W 45-31	Citrus – Arkansas	15	11	12	16

1999

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
09-04	W 26-22	Notre Dame	08	16	05	-
09-25	W 21-16	@ Wisconsin	04	20	05	04
10-02	W 38-12	Purdue	04	11	05	25
10-09	L 31-34	@ Michigan State	03	11	05	07
10-23	L 29-35	Illinois	09	-	05	24
1-1-00	W 35-34	Orange – Bama	08	05	05	08

2000

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
09-16	L 20-23	@ UCLA	03	14	11	-
09-23	W 35-31	@ Illinois	10	19	11	-
09-30	W 13-10	Wisconsin	09	17	11	23
10-07	L 31-32	@ Purdue	06	-	11	13
11-04	L 51-54	@ Northwestern	12	23	11	-
11-18	W 38-26	@ Ohio State	19	12	11	-
1-1-01	W 31-28	Citrus – Auburn	17	20	11	18

2001

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
09-08	L 18-23	@ Washington	11	15	20	19
09-29	W 45-20	Illinois	17	22	20	12
10-13	W 24-10	Purdue	12	17	20	-
11-03	L 24-26	@ Michigan State	06	-	20	-
11-24	L 20-26	Ohio State	11	-	20	-
1-1-02	L 17-45	Citrus – Tennessee	17	08	20	04

2002

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
08-31	W 31-29	Washington	12	11	09	-
09-14	L 23-25	@ Notre Dame	07	20	09	17
10-12	W 27-24	Penn State	13	15	09	16
10-26	L 09-34	Iowa	08	13	09	08
11-23	L 09-14	@ Ohio State	12	02	09	01
1-1-03	W 38-30	Outback – Florida	12	22	09	-

2003

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
09-13	W 38-00	Notre Dame	05	15	06	-
09-20	L 27-31	@ Oregon	03	22	06	-
10-04	L 27-30	@ Iowa	09	23	06	08
10-10	W 38-35	@ Minnesota	20	17	06	20
10-25	W 31-03	Purdue	13	10	06	18
11-01	W 27-20	@ Michigan State	11	09	06	-
11-22	W 35-21	Ohio State	05	04	06	04
1-1-04	L 14-28	Rose – USC	04	01	06	01

2004

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
09-25	W 30-17	Iowa	17	-	14	08
10-09	W 27-24	Minnesota	14	13	14	-
10-23	W 16-14	@ Purdue	13	12	14	-
11-20	L 21-37	@ Ohio State	07	-	14	20
1-1-05	L 37-38	Rose – Texas	07	-	14	20

2005

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
09-10	L 10-17	Notre Dame	03	20	-	09
09-24	L 20-23	@ Wisconsin	14	-	-	15
10-01	W 34-31	@ Michigan State	-	11	-	-
10-08	L 20-23	Minnesota	21	-	-	-
10-15	W 27-25	Penn State	-	18	-	03
10-29	W 33-17	@ Northwestern	25	21	-	-
11-19	L 21-25	Ohio State	17	09	-	04
12-28	L 28-32	Alamo – Nebraska	20	-	-	24

2006

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
09-16	W 47-21	@ Notre Dame	11	02	08	17
09-23	W 27-13	Wisconsin	06	-	08	07
10-14	W 17-10	@ Penn State	04	-	08	24
11-18	L 39-42	@ Ohio State	02	01	08	02
1-1-07	L 18-32	Rose – USC	03	08	08	04

2007

Date	Score	Opponent	M @ time	O at time	M final	O final
09-01	L 32-34	Appalachian St.	05	-	??	??
09-22	W 14-09	Penn State	-	10	??	??

Bullets v. Top 10 at the time

· Carr won his first 9 games against such opponents

· His first loss, 16-31, was on 11-21-98 @ Ohio State .

· Since the first 10 games, Carr split the next 14 giving him a total record of 16-8.

· The longest losing streak was 3 (04 Rose versus USC, 05 Rose versus Texas and the 2005 OSU game (21-25 at Ann Arbor)).

· Carr is 8-1 at home; 6-3 on the road; and 2-4 in bowls

· Carr is 2-1 when Michigan was higher ranked than its opponent and 14-7 when lower ranked.

· Michigan is 5-4 versus non conference opponents (0-2 v. USC; 2-0 v. Colorado; 1-0 v. Alabama; 1-0 v. Notre Dame; 0-1 v. Tennessee; 0-1 v. Texas; and 1-0 v. Washington State) and 11-4 versus conference foes (4-4 v. OSU; 4-0 v. PSU; 1-0 v. MSU; 1-0 v. Purdue; and 1-0 v. Wisconsin).

· Records versus - #1 0-2; #2 4-1; #3 0-0; #4 2-0; #5 2-0; #6 1-1; #7 0-1; #8 3-2; #9 2-1; and #10 2-0.

Bullets v. Top 10 at end of season

· Carr is 11-14 in such games.

· The longest winning streak was 3 (96 OSU, 98 Rose Bowl versus WSU, and 98 Wisconsin).

· The longest losing streak was 4 (02 Citrus versus Tennessee, 02 Iowa, 02 OSU, and 03 Iowa).

· Carr is 6-5 at home; 3-5 on the road; and 2-4 in bowls.

· Michigan is 2-1 when finishing higher ranked than its opponent and 9-12 when it finished with a lower rank.

· Michigan is 3-5 versus non conference foes (1-0 v. Alabama; 1-0 v. Colorado; 0-1 v. Notre Dame; 0-1 v. Tennessee; 0-1 v. Texas; 0-2 v. USC; and 1-0 v. Washington State) and 8-9 versus conference foes (1-2 v. Iowa; 0-1 v. MSU; 0-1 v. Northwestern; 3-4 v. OSU; 1-1 v. PSU; and 3-0 v. Wisconsin).

· Records versus #1 0-2; #2 1-2; #3 1-0; #4 2-3; #5 0-1; #6 2-1; #7 1-2; #8 3-2; #9 1-1; and #10 0-0.

What Wisconsin Means

2007-10-01T21:32:00.000-05:00

I could natter on about all of the yards surrendered and the bad penalties and such. Blah, blah... Whatever. Guess what? It's not like anyone expected a Big Ten title run this year. Deal.

What I would like to fixate on is nearly beating what is now the #5 team in the country in their own legendarily loud house. When I looked at the schedule for this year and tried to reasonably evaluate what it meant, here is what I thought an early season win streak would mean:

1. Beat UAB soundly = pleased but not yet convinced
2. Beat Bowling Green = relieved
3. Beat Pittsburgh = interested
4. Beat Notre Dame = mildly surprised
5. Beat Wisconsin = "shocked and awed" because that would mean...
6. A probable win against Northwestern...
7. A probable win against Indiana...
8. A 7-0 start and a MONSTER showdown in Columbus vs Ohio State.

Straighten out a long field goal try and/or don't make one of several dumb late penalties, and Michigan State has cleared stage 5. Basically, they have come damn close to the shock and awe. I feel cautiously safe in saying that his team decidedly does not suck and can win at least three of its remaining seven games.

They came back in the 4th quarter, in a hostile environment, and nearly upended a top ten team to go 5-0. Home field means a lot to Michigan State. It means even more to Wisconsin. This was basically a tie on a neutral field. If they could beat Wisconsin -- and they COULD have beaten Wisconsin -- then Ohio State is the only remaining team on the schedule that makes you shake your head and say "no way."

Not figured into my pre-season analysis was:

1. Michigan losing its first two and nearly losing to Northwestern.
2. Penn State losing to Illinois and looking very bad against Michigan.
3. Illinois -- who we don't have to play -- looking like it could turn more upsets.
4. Iowa also looking horrible.

These are all favorable developments for MSU that I did not count on, and all of that in the face of a Spartan team playing better than I dared hope.

Six wins now seems a pleasantly modest request. Eight seems doable. Nine doesn't look completely crazy anymore. No matter how much better this may get, I will keep a promise to myself made after years of watching the Wal Mart Wolverine fans beat themselves into frustration: Enjoy the moment. Enjoy the ride. You don't know when it will end.

2007 Top 20 Performers v.4

2007-09-30T10:14:00.000-05:00

Ranking teams by what they've done, not by what we think they can do. This week, we'll start calling this the "Dennis Green Index," because a lot of teams lived up (or down) to where I put them last week. In a memorable rant: "They were who we thought they were!"

1. LSU (last week = same)
Ho, hum... I suspect that the coaches and sportswriters will start giving these guys a few more #1 votes after the Trojans' narrow miss vs Washington. I've had LSU here for a while.

2. Cal (lw = same)
Not necessarily convinced that they are better than Southern Cal yet, not saying they are not either, but they keep beating better teams. The national polls had them sixth last week and will doubtlessly be moving them up quite close to where I had them to begin with.

3. Southern Cal (lw = same)
This is where they get dropped to when Southern Cal beats them. I'm just getting a head start.

4. South Florida (lw = same)
Ahem.... 18th? The national polls will surely now be bumping them into whispering distance of the top five. I had them here last week -- and fifth the week before.

5. Ohio State (lw = #11)
This is social promotion as much as anything. They keep beating all that is laid before them. Also, that win over Washington is looking better and better as Washington looks pretty scrappy against a brutal sked.

6. Wisconsin (lw = #18)
Finally, and unfortunately, a real win.

7. Boston College (lw = same)
The wreckage of the conventional polls' previous top 10 this weekend and BC's sleepwalking win over UMass is probably enough to get them vaulted out of the teens and into the top 10. I've had them here for two weeks. The 3-0 conference record is looking quite BCSish at this stage, but always beware of the multi-car pile-up that the ACC is poised to become.

8. Kentucky (lw = same)
Another, like BC, about to get promoted out of the teens in the conventional polls after playing a nobody. They earned the spot last week, however, and the week before. Ask Arkansas. And Louisville.

9. Florida (lw = same)
And here's the flipside of our Dennis Green Index. The conventional polls had the Gators in the top 5 last week and will doubtlessly drop them after the cliffhanger loss to Auburn. Maybe they go out of the top 10, maybe not. But I think I parked them more correctly to begin with.

10. Oregon (lw = #6)
Here the conventional polls got them right, somewhere in the #11-#12 range. Though, I suspect they'll drop them further after the Cal loss. I'll keep them here.

11. Oklahoma (lw = #5)
Colorado? And Texas lost to Kansas State? The Big 12 Norris Division is looking feisty. Which explains why you won't find Nebraska anywhere near this poll for quite a while.

12. Rutgers (lw = same)
They deserved this last week because they hadn't done anything yet. Losing to Maryland is pretty much treading water with what I thought of them.

13. West Virginia (lw = same)
Obviously, a favorite for the DGI. I put them here last week because I thought that #5 ranking was better reserved for the team that would beat them -- South Florida. So, both teams did exactly as expected and stay where they were.

14. Texas (lw = same)
Yet another team that lived down to my expectations. More DGI love. I welcome all of the poll voters who had them #7 last week.

15. South Carolina (lw = same)
Conventional polls had them 16th or 21st. They might get a nice bump from beating Mississippi State. It would be wrong to put them any higher than this.

16. Clemson (lw = #10)
The ACC is who we thought they were .... last year: A smash-up derby, Hobbesian war of all against all, where life at the top is nasty, brutish and short, and the end of season goal is every team finishing 8-4, with a dozen bowl invitations and nobody ranked higher than 20th.

17. Arizona State (lw = same)
The tree falling in the woods team. If they play nobodies and beat nobodies, should it make a sound?

18. Purdue (lw = NR)
My only new entrant this week. The win over Notre Dame actually means something to me because, paradoxically, beating Notre Dame gets harder and harder as chaos theory will eventually overcome the offensive mind of Charlie Weis. The Irish at some point will beat somebody, so the priceof playing them gets higher and higher for every decent team that confronts the prospect of a classic "trap game" loss. Also, of course, Purdue is 5-0 and putting up playstation scores on everyone they play.

19. Missouri (lw = same)
They beat Illinois State 38-17. That's basically a bye week. The win over the real Illinois looks pretty good because Illinois is looking... pretty good.

20. Cincinnati (lw = same)
Still the most boring "interesting storyline" in college football. 5-0? Great. Beat somebody. PLAY somebody. Make me care.

Notes:
1. I ditched my Penn State stock last week. That looks better and better, though I'm not yet ready to buy Illinois -- but getting close.

2. Still not convinced on Hawaii. They're Cincinnati with even less hope for proving otherwise because of the silly sked.

3. Alabama, previously #16 on this list, is the only team I dropped this week.

4. Though counting in the conventional top 20's, Virginia Tech is not included because they lost their only big game badly (LSU) and haven't played anyone else. Michigan State and a few others not counted in my poll would deserve it more.

5. Georgia, also in the conventional poll top 20, isn't here because I didn't have room. Thought long and hard about adding them and booting ... who? Missouri? Cinncinnati? Purdue? Basically, it came down to to many SEC teams on the board already.

Predictions -- Week 5

2007-09-27T18:58:00.000-05:00

Badness again last week with a 3-4 score, though hardly on par with the 0-5 from the previous week. Obviously my own stupidity might be at fault, but in the spirit of this season's greatest losers, I've decided it's easier to blame Tyrone Willingham.

Season vs spread: 7-11 (.389)

Smart things said last week?
UConn @ Pitt -9.5 -- WTF???? This is a toss up. Pitt is banged up all over the place. The Spartans tried to give a game to them and they wouldn't take it (for the second year in a row). Pitt might win this game, but is still way over-favored. UConn getting 9.5

UConn won by 20.

Dumb things said last week?

I don't care if it's Eastern Michigan getting only 7 points (a not-unrealistic possibility this season), always, always, always take whomever is playing against Michigan following an uplifting victory in Ann Arbor.

Eh... Success is just around the corner. All picks against Thursday night's ESPN spreads:

Southern Cal @ Washington +20.5
Washington has a brutal sked and is playing it reasonably well. This is the kind of game where USC will play just good enough to win, such as that fog battle with Oregon State a few years back. Of course, USC should win, but I could entertain arguments for an upset. So nearly 3 TD's is a bit wild of a spread. And would there be any greater amusement than a Ty Willingham team beating USC?
Washington, getting 20.5 pts

West Virginia @ South Florida +7
Maybe the biggest home game ever played by South Florida. I think they'll be more ready than a seven point dog.
South Florida, getting 7

Michigan @ Northwestern +17
Yeah, I know NW lost to Duke. But at least Duke is a 1A team. Michigan has only one win where their offense scored more than 17 pts, but that was playing against a small D3 school from Indiana. Northwestern will go down by a ton of points, and then catch up and cover in garbage time as Michigan pulls its defensive starters.
Northwestern, getting 17.

North Carolina @ Virginia Tech -18.5
A typically brutal schedule for Vermont (VT). They snuck past E. Carolina (is that even a state?), then ate dirt, 48-7, when the letters "LSU" got pasted on their foreheads. Recovery was sweet, kicking around Ohio (Hokies beat Bobcats -- coming to a HS playoff near you!). And last week, they beat the crap out of both William AND Mary, but didn't have the guts to take on Joseph as well. Got the idea? NC has Butch Davis. He's good and he's overdue for putting something together. Not calling an upset, but a close game.
North Carolina, getting 18.5

Iowa State @ Nebraska -21
Two words, Ball State, are worth more than three touchdowns.
Iowa State, getting 21

Kent State @ Ohio -3
Last year, after a slow start, Ohio roared through the MAC schedule and into the title game. They start again here with Kent.
Ohio, giving up 3 pts.

Louisville @ North Carolina State +8.5
With their defense, Louisville will need to score nine touchdowns to cover this spread. With their offense, they could. But NC State should not be this big of a dog at home.
NC State, getting 8.5

The Kevin Bacon BCS

2007-09-26T22:57:00.001-05:00

Michigan's loss to Appalachian State, followed by Appy State's loss to Wofford this week, has no fewer than two College Football News writers musing sarcastic on the chain of logic implications of evaluating teams based on who beat whom. Matt Zemek uses this to show Wofford beating Penn State, and Pete Fiu prognosticates that Central Florida, NC State, Wofford and Appy State should all now be ranked in polls ahead of Penn State and Michigan.

Clever.

But I found the Mother or All Kevin Bacon Seperations from last season. A few more steps than seven, but considerably more ambitious...

1. Grand Valley State won the 2006 Division 2 National Championship, norrowly beating NW Missouri State in the national championship game.

2. NW Missouri State narrowly beat D-2's Chadron State College in the D-2 playoffs on the way to the title game. This was Chadron's only loss of the year.

3. Among Chadron's 12 wins was on the road in the regular season over Division 1-AA Montana State.

4. Montana State was no pushover. They went two rounds into the 1-AA playoffs, getting knocked out by the eventual national champs, Appy State. But weirdly enough, they started the season by going on the road to Boulder and somewhat famously upsetting Colorado... the 1-A team that plays in the Big 12.

5. Colorado won only two games all season. One of them was over Iowa State.

6. Iowa State had only four wins. One of those was against Missouri.

7. Missouri crushed Mississippi (see where this is going?).

8. Mississippi beat Vandy.

9. Vanderbilt beat Georgia (and I should add that Colorado nearly beat Georgia as well, which would have truncated this chain by whacking out stages 6-9).

10. Georgia went on the road and destroyed Auburn.

11. And, of course, Auburn was famously the only loss suffered by Florida.

So there you have it. Eleven degrees of seperation -- a direct line of victories putting undefeated 2006 D-2 champs Grand Valley State (and NW Missouri State, the runner up) on top of the 2006 BCS champs.

Who needs 1-A playoffs? Just send Florida's crystal trophy to Grand Rapids.

Dreaded "1AA Virus" takes toll on heavy, old...

2007-09-25T17:29:00.000-05:00

The Smash Mouth TFH Hypothesis

EDSBS is tracking the spread of "Transitive Football Herpes," a virus that made the jump from 1AA to 1A when Appalachian State defeated Michigan, but is now leaping throughout the 1A ranks as Michigan has begun to finally work through its schedule. While the nation's flagship CFB blog has done honorable work in discovering and tracking the spread of the virus, the analysis to date may be incomplete and contain a small error. The "Smash Mouth Hypothesis" is that two elements need to be changed the TFH transmission theory:

1. Russell Crowe belongs nowhere in the flow chart. Michigan did not defeat him, nor his rugby team. So, any subsequent infectious behavior from Mr. Crowe is as logically linked to Michigan as would be subsequent behavior by Oregon (a team that famously did NOT lose to Michigan -- more on them in a moment).

This is minor but important because...

2. After examining EDSBS' compelling chart, it is our theory that TFH strikes teams with coaches who suffer from some combination of being morbidly obese (Charlie Weis) or Biblically aged (JoePa). Notice that the primary infector, Appy State, has Hal Moore, who is not exactly the shiney new toy on the coaching block. And he beat Lloyd Carr, a man whose age is quickly catching up with his longstanding "get off my damn lawn" old-guy attitude.

Further evidence comes in the form of Oregon coach Mike Bellotti, who is neither old nor heavy, and whose team will periodically return to the Big House throughout the season to score demonstration TD's against the Wolverine defense at halftime during Big Ten games.

Going Forward...

If the Smash Mouth Hypothesis is true, then a trend will start to develop. A big test this weekend will come because Michigan is cued up to play Northwestern, a team whose coach is among the youngest in 1A ball and anything but hefty. Bet your point spreads accordingly.

Following that, only the Wilfred Brimleyish Joe Tiller remains on the UofM schedule as a team whose coach carries about a reasonable amount of age/girth baggage. Lots more mystifying defeats for Maize and Blue, along with a suspicious thumping of Purdue, will be a strong indicator that the SMH might be true.

Likewise, with Penn State and ND already infected, we see certain positive things devloping already:

First, not yet old, quite fit, and maniacally intense, Mark Dantonio's Spartans were easily able to avoid infection from Notre Dame. But this week, ND has Purdue...

Second, Joe Pa won't be facing any more old/heavy vulnerables until he runs into .. ta da .. Purdue toward the end of the Big Ten slate.

Purdue, thankfully, doesn't play anyone else they can spread the virus to in the Big Ten.

So, if true, this all good news for most college football fans. If your coach is young and trim, your team is safe. And even if not, the damage will likely be contained to Purdue.

Be safe. Stay tuned.

2007 Top 20 Performers v.3

2007-09-23T21:15:00.000-05:00

Ranking teams by what they've done, not by what we think they can do...

1. LSU (last week = same)
Workmanlike downing of a good South Carolina. Nothing about these guys doesn't look real.

2. Cal (lw = same)
The big win over Tennessee stands high, which is what keeps them above...

3. Southern Cal (lw = #4)
Only signature win so far is over a Nebraska team that I've never believed in and which almost lost to Ball State. We all know what happens to teams that narrowly beat Ball State...

4. South Florida (lw = #5)
Doing everything asked of them and doing it well. Stung Auburn. May be the Beast of the East, the way things are going with Louisville. Next up... West Virginia. A lot will be revealed.

5. Oklahoma (lw = #6)
Strong smashing of an under-rated Tulsa team (a game at Tulsa, for some reason). Who in the Big 12 beats them? Harder and harder question to answer every weekend.

6. Oregon (lw = #7)
Blowout of Michigan looking better all the time as Michigan recovers. Strong win over Stanford after a shaky first half (a loss to the Jim Harbaugh team would have been a delicious addition to a weird year in Ann Arbor).

7. Boston College (lw = #8)
Another smash-up derby in the ACC shaping up this year, but BC is keeping its fenders clean and piling up conference wins.

8. Kentucky (lw = #10)
Louisville... then Arkansas... You get the feeling that these guys must float back to Earth from their dream at some point. No way they can make a run at their conference title, right? That's what I thought last year about Wake Forest. And Rutgers.

9. Florida (lw = #11)
Unlike Kentucky, these guys or LSU probably will win the SEC. But so far, they haven't racked up the trophies that Kentucky has. And there was that narrow miss vs Ole Miss this weekend. No serious questions, but some questions nonetheless...

10. Clemson (lw = #13)
Started with a win over a FL St team that isn't yet showing traditional Florida State life. Haven't been given a serious challenge since, but haven't failed any of them either.

11. Ohio State (lw = #15)
Pounded NW, for what that's worth. Not much in the win column to be impressive, but everything is still in the win column.

12. Rutgers (lw = #14)
Social promotion at work here. They were idle and haven't really played anybody. Good coach. Clean W/L record. Not much else to say.

13. West Virginia (lw = #16)
Played pretty much nobody. Beat everybody. South Florida gets the higher ranking because of the Auburn win, but the winner of the clash between these two this week gets the top 5 ranking.

14. Texas (lw = #17)
Whoopee, you killed RICE!!! Still not forgetting that near miss against Central Florida. Oklahoma has played better, pounded them worse.

15. South Carolina (lw = #3)
LSU is just really damn good. South Carolina will get back to winning real soon. I could see, but do not expect, an upset of Florida and a rematch with LSU in the SEC title game. Too many returning starters in Spurrier's weapon cabinet. More surprises ahead. Just like...

16. Alabama (lw = #9)
Somebody had to lose when Bama played Georgia. Good coaches, good teams, etc... As with SCar, I don't expect Bama to beat LSU and steal the division, but stranger things have happend. Trust in Nick Satan. This team will end the season stronger than it starts -- and it is starting quite well.

17. Arizona State (lw = #18)
Bleh... bleh... Mediocre schedule not likely to get better soon. Hard to know, so they keep getting socially promoted until they play somebody real or trip over themselves. Seen this movie with these guys before.

18. Wisconsin (lw = NR)
Almost lost to UNLV, almost lost in Madison to Iowa (who DID lose to Iowa St), let the Citadel put up 31 pts on their defense in Madison. That's three of their four wins. The Spartan in me is terrified of playing them in Madison this weekend. But the logical football mind tells me something is very wrong with the Wisconsin story that the recognized polls are showing. They get into my ranking because of gravity -- others ahead of them have faltered and they are still unbeaten and about to play a home game.

19. Missourit (lw = NR)
The Michigan State of the Big 12. Always living down high expectations. But right now, the narrow win on the road against Illinois is looking to be an interesting part of their 4-0 start. With Nebraska and Oklahoma on the way, they will quickly move up or out.

20. Cincinnati (lw = NR)
Grumble... grumble... These guys are killing all of the nobodies they are playing. Not much to go on here.

On the outs...

Penn State (lw #12) Lost to 2-2 Michigan
Air Force (lw #19) Smashed by BYU
Tulsa (lw #20) Crushed by Oklahoma.

Waiting in line...

UConn... 4-0. Battered Pitt for best win.
Purdue... 4-0. One conference win. No serious wins yet.
Hawaii... 4-0. Endless series of crappy competition.
Michigan State... 4-0. They fight for Wisconsin's spot this week.
Kansas... 4-0. HUGE WINS. Little opponents.

Drew Sharp: Chicken salad or just s---?

2007-09-23T00:00:00.000-05:00

(Ed: Drew Sharp and the Free Press have since reposted the article so that it substantially covers and speaks only about the deliberate fumble. Little remains of the original focus and tone of the article, save for a "google ghost." The quote below is from the original, as it existed until early Sunday morning. The changed article on the Freep website makes no mention of the substantial changes made).

In his post game article, datelined "South Bend," Detroit Free Press aspiring sports journalist Drew Sharp made notice of the droppage of the football by Spartan QB Brian Hoyer just before he picked it up and fired a perfect strike for the final TD. According to Jr. Newsboy Drew...

Quarterback Brian Hoyer fumbled the snap on a fourth down and short opportunity. It is moments like those in which the demons that have long haunted this program return, manifesting themselves in the most emotionally tortuous way imaginable.

But Mark Dantonio has incessantly preached to his players to not fear making the mistake, just make the play.

Hoyer didn't retire into the fetal position. He calmly cleaned up his mistake and coolly lofted a perfect strike to tight end Kellen Davis for the touchdown that devastated an already downtrodden Notre Dame.Sometimes, you can make chicken salad out of the alternative.

Yeah, um... that "alternative" to "chicken salad" would be what your column is, Drew. Because, if you really were in "South Bend," like your dispatch says, then it might have been wise to head off to the post game press conference. If you had, you might have learned what everyone else did about that play:

The most memorable play was the final touchdown. On fourth-and-2 from the 30 yard line, Hoyer fumbled the snap -- on purpose, as it turns out -- picked it up and threw a TD pass to Davis.

"We've practiced that thing since the spring," Dantonio said.

Hoyer said he was worried doing it on fourth down, but said the Irish fell for it. "I guess it helped that I fumbled on the second play of the game," he said.

So, Drew, I offer some helpful advice. Those "press conferences" are meant for members of the "press." Now, due to your demonstrable track record over several years regarding Michigan State (and the Wolverines, for that matter), I'm not so certain that this "press" thing should really mean YOU. But, technically, a major American newspaper does sign your paycheck under the peculiar assumption that you are a journalist. That means you should probably go to the "press" conferences regarding the games that you cover for ... the ... press.

You might even learn something.

(Note: None of this applies if -- like your Freep psuedo-journalist co-worker Mitch pAblum -- you don't really see the games despite submitting datelines that indicate otherwise.)

Saturday observations...

2007-09-22T18:24:00.000-05:00

31-14 Michigan State over Notre Dame.

Yes, not the brutal beat down that everybody else has put on them to date, but still a convincing win. And considering that Slappy Jabba didn't want Heisman Emu throwing the ball anymore, not bad at all. That's a good win against a Notre Dame that's playing ball control offense. They were playing not to get killed, rather than to win. I dare say that most everybody else would have beaten them this way under the same circumstances. It's just a bad Notre Dame.

And besides, they can't lose by sixty every week, can they? Ask Stephen Hawking, but there must be a law of entropy or something that mere random luck will produce a convincing Notre Dame loss rather than a just an endless series of soul-destroying Notre Dame humiliations. Somebody had to let them get to half time with hope. They were due for mere mediocrity.

My concerns are some Hoyer passes that missed open receivers. A Hoyer fumble that gave ND an easy touchdown. A Hoyer INT in the end zone that cost MSU at least a field goal, maybe a TD. Etc... Yes, he's new. He got better as the game wore on. I don't expect this to be a continuing problem. But those mistakes will likely be fatal if they happen in Madison next week. I never expected to win that game anyway, but still...

Also, anotheroffensive lineman limping off the field. That looks not pretty.

The defense? Well, nothing awful to report here. Again. This makes me so happy.

The running game in the 4th quarter was like a favorite warm blanket on a cold winter night next to a fire.

Penalties were sparse again. That's pleaseant.

We missed an easy field goal that didn't matter. Still, 2005's horrors are not easily forgotten.

As for Notre Dame, Slappy Jabba's statement earlier in the week bears repeating. Yes, the team and the coaches and the players didn't suddenly get worse. They were unimpressive all along. Check out Ty Willingham's wins in three years over teams that finished in the Top 25, and then check out Slappy's. Here's a head start: Weis' only such win is #24 Penn State last year.

Enjoy the next nine, expensive seasons, Irish. You paid for this shit.

Michigan

I'm very happy they got a big win win out of their system before they played Michigan State. Shades of our 2005 game were starting to dance in my head if they started 1-3.

And once again, Mike Hart proves why he may be the most aptly named player in college football history. Assuming the injury bug remains at bay, I see a long and storied NFL career.

The flipside is what happens to Michigan when he is gone.

At a minimum, they have a defense again.

And I wonder how many internet references we will find this week to the assumed "final season" of Lloyd Carr. My prediction for Michigan this year is 7-8 wins, one of which is Ohio State; a mid-level bowl, which they also win; and Lloyd Carr returns next season.

Nebraska v. Ball State

Speaking of rash coaching changes, it's too bad Ball State isn't on Ohio's MAC schedule this year (barring a meetup in the MAC title game). I suspect that former Nebraska coach Frank Solich would beat them by more than present Nebraska coach Bill Callahan did today (1 pt).

Note that Nebraska has yet to get back to the winning level they had under Solich.

Before firing Solich, Nebraska had the longest streak of winning seasons and bowl games in the NCAA. The very next season after they fired him, the spell was broken. The streak passed to Michigan.

By all means, Wal-Mart Wolverines, fire Lloyd! You will get what you deserve.

South Florida

A dozen years ago, this team didn't exist. Now, they are a serious BCS threat and dark horse national title team. There is a received wisdom that says Michigan State cannot get to the level of Michigan, Ohio State or (gasp!) Notre Dame, because it is surrounded by those powers in the recruiting wars. Yet South Florida, from nothing, is now on the map by keeping its hold on a good coach and fighting in the Florida recruiting wars despite Miami-FL, Florida and Florida State in the same state, and the entire brutal SEC in the region.

It can be done. We were probably on the way when we let Nick Saban get away. I'm beginning to think a second chance is on the table.

Gracious Hosts

2007-09-20T08:57:00.000-05:00

For three games and counting, Notre Dame's most famous official cheerleader, the Leprechaun, still hasn't done his job and surrendered up any hints of their legendary lucky gold.

(Hint: Maybe he hid it in the end zone? You guys can find it by... oh... right... sorry. Nevermind. Maybe you should rename that library guy with something more reasonable... First Down Jesus?).

At any rate, the boys over at Blue-Grey Sky now have other angst to direct at what they amusingly call the "Office of Manufactured Cheer." Apparently the gracious hosts have decided to wave green and white towels when our Spartans pay a visit.

Really, guys, very touching and this does make us feel right at home in our favorite home away from home. But losing to us the last five times we've been down there to visit is hospitality enough. Turning your home crowd over to us this time is very appreciated (and understanable -- given the way Slappy Jabba has been treating you), but we really shouldn't accept.

But if you really want to make us feel at home, you could plant some of our flags after the game. When our buff mascot in the skirt and battle helmet gets done stomping on your little green man, he'll be happy to show you how to properly display them.

Predictions -- Week 4

2007-09-19T23:40:00.000-05:00

Demonstrating exquisite potential for being a degenerate gambler, I turned last week's predictions into 0-5 excrement. Eerily similar to Notre Dame's home record against Michigan State over the preceding five games, this is also a positively Weisish losing streak that has busted a promising 4-2 start to the season.

Season vs spread: 4-7 (.364)

For motivation this week, I have completely fabricated a Matt Trannon slap in the face and shown my team photos of Vegas gangsters planting a Teamsters' Union Pension Fund victory flag on my lawn following last Saturday's losses.

The very ambitious recovery hopes for getting back over 50% this week are printed below. As always, against the ESPN daily lines as of tonight, Sept 20 at 12:41am.

Northwestern @ Ohio State -22.5
Probably zero hope for an upset in this one, but Ohio State has yet to stay even 20 pts in front of anyone in 1-A ball. Leaving aside the eye-opening tanking against Duke last week, NW is still a 2-1 team that beat a Nevada team that looked like a decent mid-major going into the season. That Nevada is no longer looking so promising is due in large measure to NW. Soo....
Northwestern getting 22.5 points.

South Carolina @ LSU -16.5
Steve Spurrier started this season absolutely frigging loaded with returning starters. Yes, I know LSU is fast. Blah, blah... Everybody knows how good one of these teams is. We're just now learning how good the other one is. I think the spread is too generous for a game that could be an eye opening upset.
South Carolina getting 16.5

Air Force @ BYU -11
More elaborate thoughts on what I think of Air Force right here. BYU's narrow loss to UCLA looks less impressive after Utah famously bombed UCLA this last weekend. AF's beating that same Utah team looks all the more interesting. This spread is just plain stupid. Air Force should be the favorite.
Air Force getting 11

Washington @ UCLA -7
UCLA has lots and lots of question marks right now. Washington is exceeding expectations, but not surprisingly isn't as good as Ohio State yet. These teams are even. Washington could win this game.
Washington getting 7

Wyoming @ Ohio +4
Ohio should win this game. Probably even teams and the favorite is a loooong way from home.
Ohio getting 4

UConn @ Pitt -9.5
WTF???? This is a toss up. Pitt is banged up all over the place. The Spartans tried to give a game to them and they wouldn't take it (for the second year in a row). Pitt might win this game, but is still way over-favored.
UConn getting 9.5

Penn State @ Michigan +3
I don't care if it's Eastern Michigan getting only 7 points (a not-unrealistic possibility this season), always, always, always take whomever is playing against Michigan following an uplifting victory in Ann Arbor. Every Wal Mart Wolvie on vacation at a Vegas casino thinks he's smarter than the local odds makers this week.
Penn State giving 3.

It's time to "Make Plays!"

2007-09-19T12:15:00.000-05:00

The occasion of an MSU/ND tilt cannot go without some reference to the greatest radio meltdown of all time. I present Mike Valenti's WXYT broadcast which occurred the Monday after the Spartans lost (gave away?) the 2006 game to ND 37-40. Follow the link and click on the MP3 file.

Given Michigan's dreadful performance in its first two game this year, I thank God that I didn't have a radio show because I likely would have set a record for FCC fines. Valenti is to be commended for showing such passion without slipping into curse-like-a-drunken-sailor mode.

Smartest QB in America?

2007-09-17T19:27:00.000-05:00

Item: Notre Dame allows nation-leading 23 sacks through just three games.

Item: Backup ND QB Demetrius Jones transfers to Northern Illinois.

This could be the first instance of a QB leaving a school because he didn't want the "opportunity" to start.

Side note: Michigan State is tied with Penn State for most sacks inflicted through three games (17). RUNNNN JIMMMY!!!!

2007 Top 20 Performers v.2

2007-09-17T18:35:00.000-05:00

Ranking teams by what they've done, not by what we think they can do...

1. LSU (last week = same)
Commanding win over MTSU. Demolished Va Tech and Miss St. Only 7 pts scored on them through three games. The anti-Irish. Something gives next week vs South Carolina.

2. Cal (lw = same)
Blasted La Tech, a team that nearly beat 3-0 Hawaii, and still that commanding win over Tenn.

3. South Carolina (lw = same)
Pounded SC St one week after going on the road and upending Georgia. LSU up next week.

4. Southern Cal (lw = NR)
Big blowout of Nebraska on the road. Not sure Nebraska was ever for real, but USC sure is.

5. South Florida (lw = #4)
No game this week. Upset Auburn last week, but Auburn is looking a bit softer. So So Fla drops a spot.

6. Oklahoma (lw = #5)
Huge blowout of Utah State, but best win to date is over a suspect Miami-FL.

7. Oregon (lw = #8)
Equally solid wins over equally mediocre Fresno St, Michigan and Houston.

8. Boston College (lw = #10)
Telling win over Georgia Tech after convincing wins over defending ACC champ Wake Forest and NC State. BC is quietly dominating the early ACC standings with a Heisman quality QB.

9. Alabama (lw = NR)
First real opponent and a huge win over Arkansas.

10. Kentucky (lw = NR)
Big upset over top-ranked Louisville and solid blowouts of weak opponents.

11. Florida (lw = #16)
Crushed Tennessee in first real matchup with a real team.

12. Penn State (lw = same)
Rolls over weak opponent. Biggest win -- ND -- looks less impressive by the week. Perhaps ditto for the Michigan game. Hard to know about Penn State, but they're doing everything asked of them so far.

13. Clemson (lw = same)
See Penn State re: hard to know what to make of them so far. Except for less fearsome Florida State, no big wins, but convincing wins against weak opponents.

14. Rutgers (lw = same)
Destroys 1-AA opponent. Best win to date is a convincing one over Navy. Nothing new to report here.

15. Ohio State (lw = #20)
Nice win on road over a rapidly improving Washington. First convincing signs of Ohio State's potential.

16. West Virginia (lw = #17)
Pounded decent Maryland team on road. Only real test to date.

17. Texas (lw = #6)
Nearly got upset by Central Florida. Previous best win over TCU looking less impressive after Air Force beat them too.

18. Arizona State (lw = same)
Continues solid wins over seemingly medium level competition. No real tests yet, but no failures.

19. Air Force (lw = NR)
TCU and Utah were supposed to be the class of the Mountain West. Air Force just beat them in back-to-back weeks. Utah subsequently shows how impressive this is by smashing supposedly tough UCLA from Pac-Ten. Air Force looks real, but it still seems hard to believe.

20. Tulsa (lw = NR)
A fingernail grasp on the lowest spot after surprising win over BYU. They get this because none of the other unbeaten teams look more worthy than them -- right now. They either go out or way up after playing Oklahoma next week.

On the outs...

Washington (lw = #7) Blasted by Ohio State
Georgia Tech (lw = #9) Lost to Boston College
UCLA (lw = #11) Blown out by Utah
Nebraska (lw = #19) Smashed by Southern Cal in Lincoln

Hanging out, waiting for a spot...

Michigan State - Beating better and better competition...
Purdue - Lots of offense. Not much opposition.
Wisconsin - Who is this team? They keep trying to lose to somebody they should kill.

Spartans vs Pitt

2007-09-15T22:38:00.000-05:00

The Good...

Defense. Even without Nehemiah Warrick, there were turnovers, stops, sacks and basically a peformance that took over the game when there was no offense to do the job. Just as many TD's as the offense, and really had a share in the O's TD with the near-redzone turnover.

Downside, of course, were the facemask penalties and other personal fouls. But still... this is not looking like the leaky mess of a defense that we've gotten used to.

The Bad...

The aforementioned penalties, the dropped passes and some dinged up offensive lineman are disturbing old problems making an appeaerance right on cue. But having these crop up in a game you win is making the best of a bad situation. Gives the coach something to yell about while not costing the team anything in the standings.

A good insight into what kind of coaching staff the Spartans have is going to come this week. This is the "adversity" Dantonio says he wants them to work through. Now, it's time to see if that can happen.

There was also a blocked field goal try (following, of course, another stupid penalty). But, again, unlike previous years, a special teams hiccup doesn't cost the game.

The Future...

Well, this is right where I thought they should/could be on their way to a 6 win season. They have beaten three teams who more or less are performing like I expect them to have been playing.

But that's the past. The future looks very different from what I expected.

Before, I expected zero wins to come from the Ohio State, Penn State, Iowa and Wisconsin games. Now, Iowa and Wisconsin are not playing up to what anyone expected, so those games look more interesting.

I thought maybe one or two wins could be stolen from the Michigan, Notre Dame and Purdue games. Now, we definitely should take care of Notre Dame, and the Michigan game looks about on par with Purdue for challenge. Beating all three of these guys isn't crazy anymore. Still not likely, but no longer insane.

I figured two likely wins out of Indiana and Northwestern. This hasn't changed too much, except that the Northwestern looks slightly worse and Indiana slightly better

End result: MSU can probably get to seven wins the way things look now. Again, this isn't because of their success. It's the failure of the rest of the Big Ten to live up to expectations. The smash up derby that his taking shape looks a whole lot like the ACC last year... which quite improbably produced Wake Forest for a conference champ and BCS attendee.

Falcon Crest

2007-09-14T22:50:00.000-05:00

A new darkhorse BCS buster may have just slinked in the back door: Air Force

Downing TCU in OT last night, the surprising Falcons are 3-0, with wins over two of what should have been the top 3 teams in the Mountain West (they beat Utah last week). Next week, they go for the trifecta with a visit to already tarnished BYU.

If they get by BYU, they will have taken out the class of their conference and seized a pole position on a run for the Mountain West title. But could a 12-0 run be possible? Look what they have left. They could do it, there are a lot of decent teams in their way, but probably nobody as bad as what they would have already beaten if they down BYU.

If they DO pull it off, this is a Cinderella run for the ages...

@BYU
A big toughie. BYU beat Arizona and lost a narrow one to UCLA. Beating BYU would say a lot about who Air Force is and set the stage for a Cinderella run.

@Navy
Obvious rivalry game and the class of the service academies right now. Winning at BYU says they can beat Navy. Winning at Navy says they are trouble.

UNLV
These guys played Wisconsin tough last week, but barely beat historically putrid Utah State the week before. They might be real, but they might not. Either way, probably NOT as bad as BYU, TCU and Utah -- and also a home game.

@Colorado State
Beaten narrowly by Colorado. Then beaten narrowly by Cal. This is a team on the rise, but again a team that on paper right now Air Force could beat.

Wyoming
Cowboys are 2-0 and have already beaten Virginia and Utah State convincingly. This could be the toughest game left on the Air Force schedule. And, it could also be a battle of unbeatens for the conference title (though Wyoming plays Boise this week). Much like Air Force, Wyoming could also be a dark horse unbeaten BCS buster. More on that if they beat Boise State tomorrow.

@New Mexico
Probably the 2nd easiest game on the slate. NM is 1-1, hasn't played anybody, and hasn't looked good doing it.

Army
Definitely the easiest team left on the schedule.

@Notre Dame
Three weeks ago, this was considered one of the easiest games on ND's schedule. Imagine getting to Nov 10 with an unbeaten Air Force playing an Irish team that absolutely must have this win to stay bowl eligible...

San Diego State
Only one game thus far -- a thorough pounding by Washington State. At this early vantage point, this late game looks quite winable.

Crazy?

Well, yes, it's way early to say this is anything but a remote possibility. But, as with Wyoming and a quickly shrinking list of other mid-majors, an unbeaten run for Air Force is no less likely than any of the others. The thing that makes this interesting is the unlikely roll through an early tough pile of opponents without losing. In some ways, Air Force has already done a lot of the heavy lifting without anyone really paying attention.

Of course, even unbeaten, there is no assurance that they get a BCS bid (though it would be a crime if they did not).

NOBODY was looking at Air Force as undefeated potential at the beginning of the year. Phil Steele picked Air Force dead last in the conference, but they've now beaten two of the three teams he picked at the top. Toss in the suddenly soft Notre Dame, and a Navy team that is a tad weaker than in past years, and the stars may be lining up.

BYU next week will say a lot.

You heard it here first.

Some hope from the past

2007-09-14T08:18:00.000-05:00

Clearly Michigan's season to date has been an unmitigated disaster and no one thinks it can be salvaged. So I went to the record books for some perspective and was surprised by what I saw. The last four times that Michigan has lost 2 games out of its first three, it went on the win the Big Ten. In 1980, it opened 1-2, finished 10-2 and won the title outright. In 1982, it started 1-2, finished 8-4 and won the title outright. In 1988, Michigan started 0-2 missing a last-second FG against ND and blowing a 16-or-17-point lead against Miami. The Wolverines finished that season 9-2-1 with an outright Big Ten title. Finally, in 1998, Michigan was a defending national title team (note I did not use the definite article "the" as there were two of them) and lost badly to ND and Syracuse. In many ways the Syracuse game was a mirror of this year's Oregon game. That Wolverine squad finished 10-3 and was conference co-champions (but got smoked by Ohio State the other co-champ).

While all 4 of these teams lost to ND, none of them started a season 0-3. So, I'll wait until late Saturday evening before I think about entering a positive frame of mind.

Don't believe the hype

2007-09-14T07:50:00.000-05:00

You would think that the UM/ND tilt would be utterly without hype as: (1) both teams are on nasty 4-game losing streaks; (2) ND had its worse home-opening loss ever; (3) Michigan became the first ranked team to lose to a FCS/Div I-AA team; and (4) ND has the lowest ranked offense of all 119 Div I teams. There are more stats and factoids showing the futility of both squads but the internet doesn't have room for all of them.

But there is some extraordinary hype for this game. Where could it possibly come from you ask? Tom Lemming, who said:

Mallett's arm strength is unbelievable. I compare him to Jeff George and Dan Marino. Clausen might be the better quarterback, though. When he's healthy he is the best precision passer I've seen. So it's like [Joe] Montana against Marino.

In case Mr. Lemming missed their last games, Clausen led the Irish to 10 straight three and outs and no offensive touchdowns. The sole offensive points, a FG, occurred after a punt return to the the PSU 7. Mallet was no better, he was a whopping 6-17 with an interception and led the Michigan offense to 0 points and about 70 yards (for comparison, Henne led UM to 307 at that half).

Maybe we ought to led these guys prove something on the collegiate field before comparing them with all-time NFL greats.

Cheatin' Leprechauns

2007-09-11T19:10:00.000-05:00

Hmmm... This item at College Football News reminds me of "Slappy" Charlie Weis and his baseless claims to the refs about Matt Trannon in Spartan Stadium last year. It seems that whimpering about fake violence is part of Summer Camp in South Bend.

I bet Slappy was that kid in school that everybody hated because he cried for attention over the slightest provocation during rough play at recess. Y'know, the kid that made the teachers tell you to stop sledding down the hill made of ice and start making snow angels instead?

Something Wolverines and Spartans should keep an eye on in coming weeks....

A Bigger Flop Than Evan Almighty
By Matthew Zemek

When certain evils persist in the world, one has to continue to bang the drum until important people take notice.

With that said, then, let's say a little more about Hollywood punters seducing referees and conning the zebras... not just into throwing flags, but into making roughing the kicker interpretations instead of the more benign running-into-the kicker rulings.

In the South Carolina-Georgia and Notre Dame-Penn State games, Georgia's and Notre Dame's punters engaged in shameful embellishment of non-hits that were supposedly delivered by punt rushers. Both punters kept their kicking legs extended well after booting the ball, and when the opposing players barely touched them, they abruptly "fell" to the ground.

A roughing penalty should be obvious enough that you don't have to wonder about the punter's acting skills. Punters are vulnerable athletes, but it only makes it that much more outrageous when a punter takes advantage of his physical frailty to trick a referee into throwing a 15-yard flag. If referees wanted to get serious on this issue, they would not only refrain from throwing these flags against punt rushers, but they would throw 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct flags against punters who take dives and embellish minimal to nonexistent contact. It's long past time to crack down on this issue. Thankfully, Georgia and Notre Dame lost in spite of the trickery that was
(shamefully and successfully) displayed by their respective punters.

Cosmic justice, once in a while, actually does prevail.

Predictions -- Week 3

2007-09-11T17:44:00.000-05:00

Last week, a nice 3-1, having come within a whisker of 4-0 as Navy nearly stayed with 16.5 of Rutgers. Taking the 8pt dog Oregon, 8.5pt dog Wake Forest and 3.5pt favorite Alabama all covered comfortably.

Season score: 4-2

All games against today's ESPN spreads. This week...

Middle Tennessee State @ LSU -41.0
I watched a little of MTSU's Xbox performance with Louisville last week. About five minutes worth, and I think MTSU put up 21 points on the way to a combined 100 points from both sides. This happened against a Louisville team that is supposed to be one of the best in the nation. LSU will win, of course, but they'll need to score 70 to stay 41 pts ahead of the Blue Raiders.
Taking MTSU and the points.

Hawaii @ UNLV +17
Here, both teams showed trends last week that argue for this game being much closer than 17 pts. First, Hawaii has been historically putrid on the road. They demonstrated this last week in nearly losing to Lousiana Tech. And then there's UNLV, which gave Wisconsin a scare. Unless the Big Ten is really down this year, the story here is that UNLV is probably a tough team at home playing against a shaky group of road warriors. Not even sure that Hawaii gets out of Vegas with a win, let alone one that's better than 17 pts.
Taking UNLV and the points.

Florida State @ Colorado +4
The die-hard MSU Spartan in me wants to believe that FL St's near disaster against UAB last weekend says more about how good UAB is than how sketchy the 'Noles have become. I want to believe this, but I don't. Colorado, on the other hand, is playing much better than last season and I think they have a chance to win this game.
Taking Colorado and the points.

Ohio @ Virginia Tech -20.5
Frank Solich has been steadily building the Ohio team and they can surprise this year. Virginia Tech, outside of famously getting blasted by LSU, got a rather skimpy win against East Carolina.
Taking Ohio and the points.

Ball State @ Navy -7
Navy can score. I took them last week and they didn't cover. I like 'em to do it this week.
Taking Navy and giving the points.

Cats Sleeping w/ Dogs...

2007-09-11T16:32:00.000-05:00

Things are pretty wild in bizarro world when even the weak 1-AA teams are standing up and saying they want a crack at the Wolverines...

Norfolk State has a daunting task on Saturday. The Division 1-AA Spartans travel to Rutgers to play the 2-0 Scarlet Knights, ranked No. 13 in this week's Associated Press poll.

The 3:30 p.m. game has Norfolk State coach Pete Adrian wishing for a lesser opponent -- like Michigan....

2007 Top 20 Performers v.1

2007-09-09T15:20:00.000-05:00

Ranking teams by what they've done, not by what we think they can do...

1. LSU
Crushed what was supposed to be a good Va Tech and did just as well against what is supposed to be a weak conference opponent Miss State. 93-7 scoring edge so far.

2. Cal
2-0. Cruised by Tennessee. Things a bit closer than expected with Colorado State this week.

3. South Carolina
2-0. Beat Georgia in Athens.

4. South Florida
2-0. Beat Auburn in their house.

5. Oklahoma
Demolished Miami as easily as they demolished North Texas. Scoring edge thus far: 130-23.

6. Texas
Knocked down what should be a good TCU, but a mundane win against Arkansas State.

7. Washington
Downed Boise State and blasted Syracuse. Asked and answered every question put to them thus far.

8. Oregon
Cruised easily by Houston and then bombed the rubble to bouncing on the road in Ann Arbor.

9. Georgia Tech
Pounded Notre Dame almost as easily as they wiped out Samford. No tough questions posed to them yet, but resoundingly correct answers to what has already been asked.

10. Boston College
Two nice conference wins already over defending champ Wake Forest and NC State.

11. UCLA
Nice win over BYU, convincing win over Stanford.

12. Penn State
Two blowouts already, one against Notre Dame.

13. Clemson
Convincing win over Florida State, blowout of Louisiana-Monroe.

14. Rutgers
Convincing win against what may yet turn out to be a good Navy team. Blowout of Buffalo

15. Cincinnati
No touchdowns scored yet against these guys, including a blowout of Oregon State.

16. Florida
Defending national champs haven't played anybody worth a pulse yet, but the scores reveal nothing surprising.

17. West Virginia
Two convincing wins over non-BCS teams that may yet turn out to be some of the better teams in their conferences: Western Michigan and Marshall.

18. Arizona State
Two convincing win over San Jose State (a 9-4 team last year) and Colorado.

19. Nebraska
Narrowly beat defending ACC champ Wake Forest and blasted Nevada.

20. Ohio State
A bit closer against Akron than would be expected. An appropriate smashing of Youngstown State.

Why some others didn't make it...

Southern Cal
The pollsters' top team has done nothing so far except win safely against Idaho. Next week at Nebraska will be their resume builder.

Wisconsin
Lots of question marks is all we see so far. Consensus #7 in the nation has just finished a nailbiter against UNLV and otherwise has only a solid win against Washington State. Next up: The Citadel. Not much will be known about the Badgers for a while yet.

Louisville
Do these guys play defense? Everybody's #9 got into a highly revealing 100-pt shootout with seemingly mediocre Middle Tennessee State. Hasn't played any other Div 1-A opposition.

Texas A&M
Needed overtime to beat Fresno. No other Div 1-A opposition.

History Makin'

2007-09-08T18:35:00.000-05:00

39-7

Worst Michigan beat-down in Ann Arbor since 1967..

Michigan State 34
Michigan 0

Worst overall loss since 1968...

Michigan 14
Ohio State 50

Also: Michigan State won only three games that year...

Picks -- Week 2

2007-09-05T17:59:00.000-05:00

Looks like I'm gonna have to make up the bulk of the posts while Masked Avenger tries to get the lyrics of Appalachian State's promo video out of his head.

The spreads are ESPN, as reported at 7pm this evening (Wednesday, Sept. 5).

Last week a mediocre 1-1. Charlie's Irish Angels didn't fail to fail. But in the theme of betting against over-rated coaching, I may have been early to the bar on Nebraska. As seen below, I've decided to stay for another drink...

Season score: 1-1

This week...

Nebraska @ Wake Forest +8.5
There are punishments for firing coaches at legendary programs who win 9-10 games every year. The Huskers will suffer in mediocrity until they turn on the interloper. I take Wake Forest and the points against Callahan's Crew, which is on it's way to an Alamo Bowl rematch against Michigan. This time, it's Lloyd Carr who saves HIS job with a win.

Navy @ Rutgers -16.5
No disrespect to Rutgers, but Navy is probably better than the 16.5 points and can keep it close. Like Rutgers, they have one of America's best coaches (also a former 1-AA national champ, IIRC). Watch out Irish....

Alabama @ Vanderbilt +3.5
Again, coaching... Nick Satan is special. Certain college fan bases just know this (Spartans, LSU, Toledo...). Not a ding on Vandy, but 'Bama will win this one by more than 3.5 points.

Oregon @ Michigan -8
This line actually moved UP from -6.5 as the week went along. Normally in this situation, I blame Michigan fans for stupidly betting their team above its potential. But it defies reason that they would be so inclined this week. Michigan will be very happy to win this narrowly, if at all, and I am far from convinced that they can. Oregon, getting the points, is a steal. They are a good team and would have looked like a good challenge for Michigan if Appalachian State had gone home on the other side of a 30pt beat-down.

Charlie's Angels vs Penn State
This line is off the charts... Something like 17 pts favoring Penn State. Not biting. But if anybody is taking action on when the 'Domers officially start turning on Charlie, then I'm willing to take after/if Tyrone Willingham upsets Boise State.

One Mystery Solved!

2007-09-04T12:38:00.001-05:00

At least now we know what the "AA" abbreviation meant in "1-AA."

Unique Thoughts -- Wk 1

2007-09-03T17:23:00.000-05:00

Unique thoughts = tryin' to say what hasn't been said already...

Any Given Saturday

What do you have if Michigan makes either of two botched field goals, or converts the first 2pt conversion, or any one of several bounces go the other way?

How about San Diego State in 2004, destined for a disappointing 4-7 season, coming into Michigan Stadium and narrowly losing 24-21? Michigan finished that season 9-3, barely lost to Vince Young's Texas in the Rose Bowl, and wound up ranked #14.

In other words, look to the big picture. In the last three weekends of college football, going back to last season, we have seen the supposed underdog Boise State shock Oklahoma, Florida defying the odds and blowing out Ohio State, and now the Appalachian State surprise. It seems that odds and rankings and especially computer rankings don't mean a whole lot when you actually put the teams on the field.

Giving a team a chance to win a game on the field doesn't always produce the expected results. While the Appalachian State game surely says something about this year's Michigan team as we begin the season, I'm more interested in what it says about the BCS system at the end of the year.

The Jobs Bowl

So... worst opening game home loss ever?

One win in two years vs. teams finishing in the Top 25 (Penn State, #24 last year)?

Two roastings in bowl games?

As the Tyrone Willingham recruits cycle out at Notre Dame, and the Charlie Weis guys come in, the results are pointing in an eerily familiar direction. I have to think that the Appalachian State story is the best thing that could have happened to Charlie Weis. The media can only ruminate on firing one coach at a time, and didn't have time to dwell too much on the offensive genius that wasn't Charlie Weis.

In his fourth to last game before getting fired, Tyrone Willingham beat Tennessee, a team that finished that year 10-3, finished ranked #14, and won the Cotton Bowl. There were several such wins in the years prior to that for Willingham at Notre Dame. Charlie Weis, beginning his third season, has given new birth to the trademark 30-pt Willingham defeats, but still hasn't gotten a signature win to rival that Tennessee game at the end, or the Michigan win the same year by Willingham, or several others.

Both Michigan and Notre Dame could easily get to Sept. 15 with 0-2 records. If that happens, get ready for the "Jobs Bowl" in Ann Arbor. The presidents of the respective schools might not think so, but the fans of an 0-3 football team are not likely to be silenced.

NEW SEASON PICKS

2007-08-30T18:16:00.000-05:00

All picks against ESPN's Spread. Here's the bets I like and why:

Georgia Tech at Notre Dame -3
A 9-4 team returns 15 starters and nearly beat 10-3 Notre Dame last year. Now Notre Dame returns 9 starters and is the favorite at home. No Calvin Johnson? How about no Brady Quinn, no starting receivers... That's a lot of "no." GT covers and maybe even wins.

Nevada at Nebraska -19.5
A tale of two coaches. Nebraska fired it's coach in 2003 -- a year the team won 10 games. Three years later, they still haven't gotten back to that level. Nevada, on the other hand, has been steadily getting stronger during the same period after a coaching change. I think these teams are more even than a near-20 point spread would justify.